Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to outpace all other provinces in Canada according to a forecast from the Conference Board of Canada.
Rising oil production and continued investment by the private sector will turn the province’s economy around, propelling growth by 6 per cent in 2013 and 3.4 per cent in 2014, according to the Conference Board’s Provincial Outlook: Spring 2013 report.
Newfoundland and Labrador’s GDP fell by 4.8 per cent in 2012, but the Conference Board predicts it will be the “runaway leader” among Canadian provinces.
The report cites projects including the expansion of Iron Company of Canada, the Alderon Iron Ore’s Kami project (scheduled to begin next year), and the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric development that will continue to create jobs and wage increases across the province.
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Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are also expected see their economies rise faster than the national average of 1.8 per cent.
Saskatchewan’s economy will rise by 3.8 per cent in 2013, according to the report, fuelled by increases in oil and potash production, which is expected to expand rapidly. Unemployment numbers in the province will also fall to around 4 per cent.
Growth in the remaining six provinces will fall below the national average – Ontario (1.4 per cent), Quebec (1.4 per cent), B.C. (1.6 per cent), Nova Scotia (1.5 per cent), New Brunswick (1 per cent) and Prince Edward Island (1.5 per cent), the report said.
“The economic outlooks for provinces in 2013 are very uneven,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, Associate Director, Provincial Outlook, in a press release. “While the western provinces retain positive outlooks, their economies face heightened risks. Economic prospects in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes will be dampened by subdued business investment and fiscal restraint among governments.”
Economic risks like uncertain commodity prices, high development costs and the postponement of new pipeline construction are continuing to mount and threaten future prospects in the west, leading to uneven economic picture across the country, according to the report.
“The global economic recovery is once again, mired in uncertainty,” says the report. “For every uptick in one indicator, there is a down tick in another and the term is fraught with risks.”
Both Ontario and Quebec’s growth are being hampered by weaker housing and provincial government’s pursuing austerity programs to help balance the books.
The other Atlantic provinces will see moderate growth thanks to resource industries like natural gas production, mining development and a turnaround in the forestry industry.
Overall uneven economic performances in Canada will continue with financial restraint weighing heavy on most provinces, and few turning in a balanced budget.
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