COMMENTARY: Seat projection shows Trudeau Liberals slip out of majority position
With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is likely to win — but not by a majority.
The seat projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April.
Collectively, this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down-weighted in the process.
The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some 30 seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago. The Conservatives have made comparable gains during the period, and it produces the prospect of a minority government for the Liberals.
WATCH: New Ipsos poll shows slipping support for Liberals (March 28)
Liberal support has eroded in every region except Quebec, where they dominate and maintain a 17-per cent lead in the popular vote over the Conservatives.
By contrast, support levels in Ontario are a virtual dead heat between the parties.
The SNC-Lavalin controversy is clearly associated with the Liberal decline outside Quebec, but the Conservative narrative has as yet been unable to create a sustainable wave in their direction.
Here’s a breakdown of the seat projection by region.