With six months to go before the upcoming federal election, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is likely to win — but not by a majority.
The seat projection was developed using a blend of polls from Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April.
Collectively, this included over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down-weighted in the process.
WATCH: New Ipsos poll shows slipping support for Liberals (March 28)
Liberal support has eroded in every region except Quebec, where they dominate and maintain a 17-per cent lead in the popular vote over the Conservatives.
By contrast, support levels in Ontario are a virtual dead heat between the parties.
The SNC-Lavalin controversy is clearly associated with the Liberal decline outside Quebec, but the Conservative narrative has as yet been unable to create a sustainable wave in their direction.
Here’s a breakdown of the seat projection by region.