I have officially gone on record as saying the Toronto Maple Leafs will beat the Boston Bruins in the playoffs.
Now before you start rolling your eyes and accuse me of being a homer, hear me out.
The best-of-7 series begins Thursday night in Boston, the scene of Toronto’s Game 7 collapse last year — as well as the infamous ’18-wheeler’ in 2013. If the Leafs hope to win their first series in 15 years they have to check off a number of boxes.
Nuetralize Boston’s top line:
First and foremost, if Toronto allows Boston’s top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak to dominate like they did in last year’s 7-game series, then the Leafs can forget about advancing past the first round. The talented trio combined for 30 points against the Leafs in the series last year and have accumulated 260 points in 2018-19.
Having third-line centre Nazem Kadri, who was suspended for three games for boarding Boston’s Tommy Wingels in their series last year, in the lineup will help keep the Bruins’ No. 1 line from scoring at will.
Get past their mental block:
Not many people are picking the Leafs to win this season despite having only three fewer wins than the Bruins this season and seven fewer points. Hockey pundits have poked holes in Toronto’s defence corps, raised an eyebrow to goalie Frederik Andersen’s statistics since March 11 (3-3-3, 3.50 goals-against average, .842 save percentage), and continuously reference the Leafs’ recent failures in the post-season, including their past two Game 7 collapses at TD Garden.
At some point in this series, Leafs players will use all this adversity as motivation. Scoring the first goal in the series and winning Game 1 would be an enormous mental boost for Toronto. In NHL history, teams winning Game 1 win the series 63 per cent of the time.
The John Tavares factor:
The Maple Leafs made the biggest free agent splash in NHL history last summer when they signed center John Tavares to a seven-year, $77 million contract. After scoring 47 goals this year — the highest single-season total by a center in team history — Tavares will be counted upon to provide added scoring punch against the Bruins. If Boston sets out to try and minimize the line of Tavares, leading scorer Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman, will the B’s be able to do the same against Auston Matthews, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson?
Calgary Flames fans will have to cough up serious cash for playoff tickets
The usual suspects:
Goaltending and special teams. Playoff teams that don’t get spectacular performances by their goalie don’t stick around for very long.
Andersen has had up-and-down performances in the playoffs. One game he is great, the next, not so much. So if the big Dane doesn’t show up in every game of this series, you have likely wasted your time by reading up until this point. While there aren’t a lot of penalties handed out come playoff time, making the most of those opportunities when they do arrive are massive. Boston’s power play was ranked third in the league this season (25.9 per cent) while Toronto was eighth (21.8 per cent), while both penalty killing units were tied in the middle of the pack (79.9 per cent).
Best players and unsung heroes:
In every series, a team’s best players have to lead the way but there are countless examples of role players who rise to the occasion and come up big. Tavares, Marner, Matthews, Andersen and defenceman Morgan Rielly must as a whole outplay Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, goalie Tuukka Rask and forward David Krejci. The Leafs will also need some of their bottom six forwards, such as wingers Patrick Marleau and Connor Brown, to chip in with the odd goal.
At the end of the day this will not be an easy series to win, for either team. The club that gets off to a good start, scores timely goals, gets big saves in key moments, and has a little luck, will come out on top.
And yes, for the record, Leafs in six.
Series Schedule
Thursday, April 11, 7 p.m. Maple Leafs at Bruins
Saturday, April 13, 8 p.m. Maple Leafs at Bruins
Monday, April 15, 7 p.m. Bruins at Maple Leafs
Wednesday, April 17, 7 p.m. Bruins at Maple Leafs
*Friday, April 19, TBD Maple Leafs at Bruins
*Sunday, April 21, TBD Bruins at Maple Leafs
*Tuesday, April 23, TBD Maple Leafs at Bruins
*if necessary
(All games listed in Eastern Time)
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