It is nearly impossible to predict what will make news in the future. But there are a number of crucial decisions and events we know are coming in 2019.
Here is a look at what will no doubt be some of the top political stories of the upcoming year.
Nanaimo byelection
Premier John Horgan is expected to call a byelection in Nanaimo in the next few weeks. He has promised that whoever is elected as the area’s new MLA will be in the legislature by the time debate over the 2019 budget starts in February.
The question now is who will that MLA be. The NDP is desperate to hold onto the seat that was left vacant after Leonard Krog resigned following his victory as Nanaimo’s mayor. MP Sheila Malcolmson is hoping to make the jump to provincial politics.
Standing in her way are two candidates with huge name recognition in Nanaimo. Liberal candidate Tony Harris is the son of prominent businessman Tom Harris. Harris, a businessman himself, brings the party automatically credibility in the city’s business community.
The Green party candidate is local teacher Michele Ney. Ney’s father Frank served as the mayor of Nanaimo for 21 years. Her name recognition and experience makes this a legitimate three-way race.
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WATCH (aired October 24): Premier Horgan announces star candidate in Nanaimo by-election
The B.C. Conservatives are also running a candidate.
The byelection could change the makeup of the B.C. Legislature and put increased pressure on the speaker. If the Liberals win, the opposition party will have 43 seats, the NDP 40, the Greens 3 and independent Speaker Darryl Plecas will be required to break ties. If Ney wins, it is expected the Greens will continue to support the NDP but with slightly more might.
Burnaby South byelection
The federal byelection in Burnaby South won’t have any influence on the government but could have a profound impact on the next federal election.
Jagmeet Singh has decided to cross the country to run for a seat in the House of Commons. The former provincial politician from Ontario has been forced to lead the NDP from outside the chamber in Ottawa because he doesn’t have a seat.
WATCH (aired August 8): What will it take for Jagmeet Singh to win in B.C.?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet called the byelection, which was triggered when former New Democrat MP Kennedy Stewart resigned to become Vancouver’s mayor. The expectation is the byelecton could be as early as February.
Expectations are high for Singh, who leads a party with a number of retiring MPs, slumping poll numbers and problems raising money. Singh is hoping a seat in the parliament and a chance to drill the prime minister on a regular basis will raise his profile. If not, the NDP could be looking for a new leader.
Teacher negotiations
Talk about expectations. The B.C. Teachers’ Federation (BCTF) and the provincial government are set to head to the negotiating table in 2019. The BCTF and the former government sparred during negotiations in 2014, leading to strikes as the two sides struggled to get a deal done.
WATCH (aired September 4): What the BCTF says it takes to improve B.C. classrooms
Now with the NDP at the helm, the BCTF is hoping there will be more support for teachers. The two sides have long been allies but there are holes in the education system that could cost more to fix than the government can afford.
The current contract expires in June and for now both sides are confident a deal will be struck before then. But one of the biggest challenges will be a funding commitment from the province to hire the new positions still vacant following the Supreme Court of Canada ruling ensuring class size and composition are returned to 2002 levels.
Federal election
By the time polls in B.C. on the night of the federal elections, the results are often already known. Changes to the times polling stations are open has addressed some of those concerns but the results in B.C. are still often not a significant influence in the overall election.
All of that could change in 2019. With poll numbers indicating a close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, the battle for British Columbia will be crucial. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spent a lot of time in the province four years ago and the Liberals went from two seats to 17. Expect the Liberal leader, along with the other party leaders, to spend a lot of time in B.C. once again.
WATCH (aired October 20, 2015): Federal Election 2015: Election boiled down to 8 minutes
Another crucial part of the race in B.C. will be how well the NDP can hold onto their seats. Singh has committed to running in Burnaby in the fall and is hoping his commitment to the province will help other candidates. Canadians vote on October 21.
Clarity from clerk investigation
B.C. Speaker Darryl Plecas has promised British Columbians they will throw up in outrage when they see forensic audits that have been promised into the financial books of the Speaker’s office, clerk’s office and the sergeant-at-arms’ office. Whether those audits will happen or Plecas’ promised reaction will be triggered is a question we will likely get an answer to in 2019.
It is still unknown what led to clerk Craig James and sergeant-at-arms Gary Lenz being put on administrative leave. Plecas has promised to provide details in January about what happened without interfering with the ongoing RCMP investigation.
Trans Mountain pipeline future
In August, the federal government was dealt a serious blow when the Federal Court of Appeal released a decision that quashed the approval of the Trans Mountain Expansion project. The federal government is now in the midst of doing a brand new environmental assessment to ensure First Nations are properly consulted and the impact of an increase to tanker traffic is properly addressed.
WATCH: B.C. Environment minister still concerned about safe movement of bitumen through B.C.
But even if the federal government does get National Energy Board approval, the future of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is not necessarily a slam dunk. The B.C. government is still waiting on a court ruling over whether it has the legal right to restrict the flow of bitumen by rail or pipeline through the province. There will also no doubt be huge protests from opponents if the federal government moves ahead with the project.
ICBC changes
Circle April 1, 2019 on your calendar. That is the day when big changes to ICBC come into effect. Those changes, promised by the B.C. government, include changing the benefits received by those in crashes, capping soft-tissue injuries, and restricting the amount of fees lawyers can charge,
Attorney General David Eby estimates the changes at the public insurer could save taxpayers $1 billion a year. But until then expect your rates to go up. ICBC has applied to see basic insurance rates to go up 6.3 per cent next year with optional rates likely going up even more.
WATCH: B.C. Attorney General David Eby says ICBC savings should come in the next year
If the dumpster fire at ICBC is going to extinguished, the results from 2019 will be a surefire sign of whether the extinguisher works.
Money laundering housing reports
The provincial government is expecting to receive two reports in 2019 about the effects of money laundering in the housing market. One panel, chaired by Maureen Maloney, will look at what gaps exist in compliance and enforcement of existing laws, consumer protection, financial services regulations, regulation of real estate professionals and jurisdictional gaps between B.C. and the federal government.
The second report is being done by Peter German, who conducted a report into money laundering at B.C. casinos that found extensive problems. But those problems did not just exist in casinos, but spread to housing and horse tracks.
Ridesharing by Christmas 2019?
The provincial government has promised to bring ridesharing to B.C. by the fall of 2019. But this is one of the political promises that goes into the ‘I will believe it when I see it’ column.
Both the NDP and Liberals have struggled to get a handle on the disruptive industry. The province finally passed legislation but there are issues with how well the new rules will work for companies like Uber and Lyft.
WATCH: B.C. transportation minister announces ridesharing coming fall 2019
ICBC is currently working on an insurance package for ridesharing and the province has promised to start reviewing applications in the fall.
Climate plan incentives
The 2019 B.C. budget is expected to be headlined by the incentives coming as part of the province’s climate plan. The province has committed to making it more affordable to upgrade to electric heat pumps, buy zero-emission vehicles or retrofit a home.
But questions still linger about whether those incentives will work.
Pot edibles
Now that pot legalization is behind the provincial government it is time to look forward. There is still only one legal pot store operating in B.C. and the expectation is that many more will come in 2019.
But the bigger challenge on the horizon is the introduction of edibles. The federal government has been struggling with how to regulate the industry that is expected to draw in a huge group of cannabis users.
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