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Bill Kelly: The truth about political polls

Bill Kelly says a lot can influence the outcome of an opinion poll — including whether the poll reaches out to respondents still using landlines. Dan Hardy/Houston Chronicle via AP

Years ago, when he was asked to comment on the latest political poll, former Prime Minister John Diefenbaker answered, “I’ve always been fond of dogs, and they are the one animal that knows the proper treatment to give to poles.”

When you consider the accuracy, or lack thereof, of recent political polls, it looks like Dief was on to something.

The most recent national polls are a case in point.

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Last week, the Nanos poll showed the Liberals with an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, yet the Forum Research poll, released over the weekend, shows the Conservatives with a nine-point lead over their Liberal counterparts.

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So, why such a huge disparity?

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Most political polling is still done on old-fashioned telephone landlines, so Canadians who have cut the cord and rely on cell phones are often excluded from the process.

And let’s not be naive, there could be the possibility of political bias in how the polling is done.

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Have you noticed that polling done for a conservative media outlet usually favours the Conservatives and polling done for liberal media tends to show the Liberals on top?

The lesson here is that political polling is not an exact science and results should be taken with a grain of salt.

On the other hand, with all the polling that’s taking place, you can always find a poll someplace that validates your political views.

Bill Kelly is the host of the Bill Kelly Show on Global News Radio 900 CHML.

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