The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party led by Doug Ford would easily move into majority territory if a provincial election were held tomorrow, despite a number of high-profile budget promises by Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.
The poll — conducted days after the release of the Ontario budget — suggests the PCs have the support of 40 per cent of decided voters compared to 27 per cent for the Ontario Liberals and 28 per cent for the Andrea Horwath-led New Democratic Party.
The Green Party would receive five per cent support, while nearly one in six (15 per cent) of those polled say they’re not sure who they would vote for. Six per cent said they would not vote.
“It’s not a policy election,” Ipsos Global Public Affairs CEO, Darrell Bricker, said. “It’s really a big time for a change. People don’t feel there is a lot being put a risk on electing Doug Ford right now.”
Liberal budget fails to attract voters
Big budget spending goodies such as free child care for pre-schoolers, dental care for those who don’t have coverage through their jobs and billions of dollars for hospital and mental health services, seems to have flopped for the Liberals, according to poll results.
Seventy-seven per cent of those polled believe it is time for another political party to take over, while just 23 per cent say the incumbent Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election.
Meanwhile, just three in 10 (30 per cent) approve of the performance of the Liberal government under Wynne’s direction.
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“Even though the issues are popular, the programs are popular, it doesn’t really seem to be affecting what people think of the government,” Bricker said. “They’re really focused on change right now.”
When it comes to leader approval rating, Horwath comes out on top with 39 per cent support among respondents and Ford is close behind with 37 per cent support. Only 24 per cent believe Wynne would make the best premier.
Ontario PCs holding strong in 905 region
The Tories continue to maintain a significant lead in the key swing region of the 905 with 45 per cent support among decided voters compared to 26 per cent for the Liberals and 24 per cent for the NDP.
In the 416 area, the Liberals have a five-point lead (38 per cent) over the PC party (33 per cent). The NDP follow behind with 28 per cent support.
The PC party maintains a significant lead in central Ontario with 57 per cent support among decided voters compared to 22 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the NDP.
In other regions, the Tories also lead in southwestern Ontario with 39 per cent support compared to 31 per cent for the NDP and 22 per cent for the Liberals.
Votes are a little tighter in eastern Ontario where the PCs lead with 39 per cent support versus 34 per cent for the Liberals and 25 per cent for the NDP.
The NDP remains the favourite in northern Ontario with 45 per cent support. The PCs are in second place with 28 per cent support and the Liberals trail at 11 per cent.
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PC party not resonating with millenials
Those aged between 18 and 34 seem to be the least likely to vote for the Ontario PCs. The Liberals (36 per cent) and the NDP (35 per cent) are battling for the millennial vote while the PCs trail with 24 per cent support.
However, the Tories have double-digit leads over the Liberals and the NDP among men and women between the ages of 35-54 and 55-plus.
Among men, the PCs have 40 per cent support versus 29 per cent for the Liberals and 27 per cent for the NDP.
Among women, the PCs have 40 per cent support versus 29 per cent for the NDP and 25 per cent for the Liberals.
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Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos.”
This Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News was an online survey of 800 Ontarians conducted between April 6 and 9. The results were weighted to better reflect the composition of the adult Canadian population, according to census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.