Andrew Scheer was chosen as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party this past Saturday night and Twitter lit up with partisan prognostications. Some said that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals had just been handed the 2019 federal election on a platter, others argued that Scheer and a united Conservative Party are certain to topple the Trudeau Liberals.
Unlike the Twitteratti, I am not smart enough to know, or partisan enough to pronounce who is going to win the next federal election. I do think that next election will most likely be driven by three public opinion trends that have taken root in Canada.
The first trend is the long-term economic angst of Canadians. When asked, Canadians say that they will have it worse than their parents when it comes to owning a home, job security and having enough money to live well, and they believe that their children will have it even worse than they do.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist (which Canada has very few of thanks to the lack of enrollment in STEM) to see these economic arguments shaping up. The Liberals will continue to push infrastructure and innovation as their answer to Canada’s economic future.
Recently, there has been some evidence that the economy is improving and the Trudeau government is getting strong marks for the way that it is running the country. Scheer’s Conservatives will counter with fiscal prudence, a lighter government touch and very likely, tax breaks as their answer.
While either party could win the title of “most competent manager of the economy,” neither can truly win the long-term economic policy debate because Canadians do not believe that our governments can have much of an impact over the economy.
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As well, Canadians are concerned about tomorrow, not today. Most remember the global recession of 2008, and more recently, the oil-price-driven recession of 2015, and are aware of the potential impact of technology on the labour market. No amount of government policy or politicking is going to convince Canadians that there will never be another recession in their lifetime and/or that their job and their children’s job will not get replaced by technology.
If the economy is not a deciding factor, I suspect the election focuses on one of two other trends we are seeing.
Fairness, equality and tolerance (strong support for LGBQT equality and equal pay) are defining Canadian values and the views that knit our society together. While we do see some signs of lower social cohesion, meaning we are less likely to help others, Canadians remain very much in favour of fair, equitable, inclusive policies that treat everyone the same.
As early as Saturday night, there were mentions of Andrew Scheer’s social conservative credentials.
When it comes to fairness and equality, it will be a battle for the moral high ground – exactly the kind of debate that gets personal – and the Liberals will continue to point to Mr. Scheer’s stated personal beliefs as evidence of his future policy agenda.
We heard the same “hidden agenda” argument when Stephen Harper first entered national prominence and the Conservatives were then able to walk this fine line.
While the Liberals appear to hold the high ground right now, they have a lot riding on their dealings with Canada’s indigenous population. When it comes to fairness, it’s a population that governments have never been able to make amends with. If the Liberals’ actions do not match their commitment by 2019, the Conservatives will paint them as “all talk” on a wide range of policy fronts.
The final trend that I think will drive the next election centres around the crisis facing Canadian elites. Canadians think the economy is rigged for the rich, we don’t think that our governments are listening to us, and we would much rather rely on our own intuition and judgment than on the views of experts.
On this front, the discussion will be less about policy or values and all about image. It will come down to which candidate looks most like an everyday Canadian and who looks less like a Laurentian elite. Whoever wins this image battle will be seen by Canadians as best positioned to defend their interests. One doesn’t have to be an advertising genius to imagine an advertisement contrasting Prime Minister Trudeau’s wedding day ride in his vintage Mercedes with Mr. Scheer’s mini-van jammed with five kids going through Tim Hortons on the way to hockey.
Both the “crisis for elites” and “Canadian fairness” are issues that lend themselves to 30-second sound bites and Twitter-length character attacks, and are much easier to communicate than complicated policies. Forget the high road — this will get personal very fast.
There will be two wild cards in the election. The NDP and Trump.
A new NDP leader may well breathe new life into the party, and if they can show enough traction to pull the Liberals to the left, we may still see an election where stark differences in social or environmental policies drive the vote.
Trump (assuming he doesn’t get impeached) and more specifically, his plans for NAFTA could also change the public environment. Canadians are decidedly pro free trade and know the value of having access to the U.S. market.
Scheer may have painted himself into a corner with his support of Brexit but the debate will likely come down to what the deal looks like for Canada.
If NAFTA negotiations look favourable as we enter 2019, that will be a huge win for the Liberals. If, however, it appears that NAFTA is too watered down or just a bad deal for Canada, that’s a win for the Conservatives. Either way, a good portion of the electoral discussion would be about the future of trade.
For average Canadians hoping that the government (including the opposition parties) will spend the rest of 2017 and 2018 focusing on the policies and programs that are required to make Canada stronger, and help Canadians adapt to our rapidly-changing world, we’ve entered the phase of our electoral cycle where every program, policy and pronouncement will be driven by how it will play out in the next general election rather than “Is it the right thing?” for Canada’s future.
Mike Colledge is president, Canada Ipsos Public Affairs
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