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Southern Ontario: Weather Network predicts back and forth temperatures, above-normal rain this summer

A couple sit in chairs along the shoreline of Lake Huron in Goderich Ont., on July 31, 2011.
A couple sit in chairs along the shoreline of Lake Huron in Goderich Ont., on July 31, 2011. Mark Spowart / The Canadian Press File

With less than a month to go before the spring season ends, the Weather Network is offering up a preview of what we can expect weather-wise for the summer.

The Weather Network released its summer outlook on Tuesday, with forecasters at the agency predicting near-normal temperatures in southern Ontario that will likely swing between hot and cool over the course of the season thanks to El Niño.

“The real keyword for this summer’s forecast is going to be ‘changeability,’” said Weather Network Meteorologist Michael Carter. “A lot like what we saw with the spring, we’re going to have a lot of extended periods of back and forth.”

The spring season has seen below-normal temperatures through March, above-normal temperatures through most of April, and cooler temperatures through May, punctuated with warmer days, he said.

“For southern Ontario, I think the overall temperature story this year is going to be near-normal,” Carter added. “But that’s going to include some periods of back and forth… We’re going to have some warmer-than-normal periods, as well as some cooler-than-normal periods.”

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Oppressive, prolonged, and extensive periods of summer heat don’t appear to be in the cards, Carter said.

“We certainly will have our fair share of 30-plus days this year, but that will be interspersed with perhaps prolonged periods of below-normal temperatures,” he said, adding the region should expect more precipitation, including the risk of severe thunderstorms that could bring localized heavy downpours.

“We’ve had a lot of problems with flooding in the area [this spring], and I think that’s really going to continue into the summer with above-normal precipitation,” he said.

“But at the same time, you can also have locations that get missed. Locations where, for whatever reason, the showers never materialize. So you can have localized dry pockets even in an overall above-normal precipitation regime.”

Summer officially arrives at 12:24 a.m. on June 21.

— With files from Natalie Lovie