Food prices in Canada are expected to rise between 1.5 and 3.5 per cent next year, though certain foods will likely see much sharper price gains, according to a new report.
One expert, however, says consumers could ease their own pain by wasting less food.
The University of Guelph in southern Ontario released a report Thursday showing that food prices will generally rise within what’s seen as an acceptable range for overall inflation – the Bank of Canada’s target range for annual consumer price gains is between one and three per cent.
Nonetheless, hospitality professor Michael von Massow, who contributed to the report, said any increase in food prices will be felt by people, particularly those of lower income who are more likely to turn to food banks for support.
“The reality is if food goes up and housing costs go up and transportation costs go up . . . people are going to have to make choices, and those choices become significant for lower-income people,” he said.
Food Banks Canada said in a report in October that about 882,000 people in Canada access food banks monthly, 339,000 of whom are children. It said those numbers are at record highs and up 31 per cent since before the 2008-09 recession.
Certain foods, such as meat, are projected to see rather sharp price gains next year. Pork costs are seen as increasing between eight and 10 per cent, and beef between six and eight per cent.
Von Massow said this is largely linked to droughts in Canada and the United States this summer that resulted in higher prices in the grain used to feed cattle and pigs.
Meat, overall, is expected to see price hikes of 4.5 to 6.5 per cent this year, eggs are projected to go up by between 3.5 and five per cent, dairy products are predicted to be one to three per cent more expensive, while fruits, nuts and vegetable are forecast to see price gains of between one and three per cent.
The University of Guelph report said food prices rose one per cent this year, and that compares to its forecast last year that food inflation would come in less than two per cent.
The report said 38 per cent of the food people buy gets thrown out. Von Massow said for most households, cutting the amount of food wasted by half would be more than enough to offset the coming year’s price gains.
“I’ve heard estimates like the average Canadian spends $28 a week on their garbage, (in other words) on the food they throw out,” he said.
He added that reducing food waste would also help ease supply pressures that cause prices to rise.
“I think food waste does play a part in rising prices because we have to produce all of the stuff that we’re throwing out,” von Massow said, adding that it’s unclear how much of food inflation is tied to this.
Ways in which food waste could be reduced, he said, includes not overbuying, being aware of the best-before and expiry dates on foods and using accordingly, and not automatically discarding fruits and vegetables that are no longer pristine.
“We are probably oversensitive to perfection in fruits and vegetables,” he said.
He added that meats and dairy products are not necessarily non-edible at their best-before dates, and that people should smell and visually evaluate products before tossing them.
“It’s not a food-safety issue, it’s usually just something that is not as good in quality as it used to be,” he said of best-before dates, adding that such dates tend to be “very conservative.”
Full report here:
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