A warm or cool fall? Anthony Farnell’s Ontario forecast

The summer of 2016 will go down as one of the hottest and sunniest on record across southern Ontario. With daylight dwindling and nights getting longer, it’s obvious the extreme heat is now behind us. But that doesn’t mean above-normal temperatures are also a thing of the past.

A pool of warm water just off the east coast has helped keep it toasty right through Thanksgiving in recent years. This year, that water is warmer than ever, which will prolong the sunny and warm weather through at least mid-October.

For farmers, these hot, dry days haven’t been a reason to celebrate. Parts of Ontario have sunk into a severe drought with effects ranging from smaller-than-normal crop yields to lower water levels and wells drying up.

Trees have also struggled with the drought. Early leaf loss and disease could mean a shorter, less vivid fall foliage season. Several days of soaking rain are needed to erase the rainfall deficit, but I don’t see this in the cards unless we get help from the tropics.

The hurricane season has gotten off to a slow start but is quickly ramping up. This will need to be watched closely through the fall.

In the Pacific, the strong El Niño (warm water) that has been the driving the global weather pattern since last year is being replaced by a weak La Niña (cold water). The effects of this change won’t be fully felt until early 2017, but computer models are hinting at early cold and snow in November.

Is this a sign of the winter ahead? Stay tuned…

Download the<a title=”Skytracker” href=”http://globalnews.ca/news/209752/download-global-news-skytracker-weather-app-for-iphone-ipad-and-android/“>Skytracker</a> weather app to stay ahead of approaching weather this Fall.