TORONTO – Russia plays a key role in determining Syria’s fate and its best interests lie in keeping Syrian President Bashar Assad in power or manipulating the regime change process so that the new authority will maintain their decades-old strategic partnership, a Canadian expert says.
As the Western world recalled its diplomats from Syria amid escalating violence Tuesday, Russia sent its foreign minister to the Arab country in an effort to urge Syria’s leader to begin a dialogue with rebels to end 11 months of bloodshed.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s talks with Assad on a solution to the crisis didn’t stop Syrian forces’ attacks on Homs, or Syria’s continued isolation from the international community as more ambassadors trickled out of the country, closing the door on any hope for discussion.
There are a number of reasons why Russia has sided with Assad, Christian Leuprecht, a Queen’s University political science and economics professor, told Global News.
“Russians are clearly betting on the fact that Assad can overcome this and I wouldn’t rule that possibility out,” said Leuprecht.
Still, international reports suggest that Russia’s visit to Damascus signals that Moscow is attempting to leverage its alliance with Assad to peacefully resolve the crisis.
“They’re also trying to manage regime change. They just want to make sure that what comes after Assad is someone or something that is hospitable to them,” Leuprecht said.
Arms contracts and excessive loans
Syria represents 10 per cent of Russia’s total international arms sales in $1.5 billion worth of contracts, Leuprecht noted.
In 2011 alone, Syria spent an extra $20 billion in security costs – an expense the underdeveloped country likely can’t afford. About 22 Arab countries’ combined GDP is the equivalent of Canada’s.
Meanwhile Russia has also been sending at least two boatloads of arms to Syria, including a third that was stopped in Cyprus, Greece, because of bad weather. Helicopters and other items were sent en masse to Assad’s robust military of at least 400,000 people who are bombarding Homs in an effort to squash rebellion in the city.
“The Russians won’t put it this way, but clearly they’re giving these arms on loan. Every weapon they send is a greater cost to Russia because it’s more money they’re sinking into this regime. They have a lot at stake here if they want to keep the regime alive if for no other reason than they want to get their money back,” Leuprecht said.
Location, location, location
Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean is in Tartus and a new regime may not accommodate this arrangement that was made under an outdated 1971 agreement.
Other countries have turned Afghanistan, Iraq and the Gulf nations into their “backyards” with military bases and other forms of presence, which Russia sees as a threat, said Leuprecht.
“For Russia, it’s a strategic game. They see the massive expansion of the American-Western footprint and they need to hang on to Syria,” he said.
And the country’s geographical location – facing the Mediterranean Sea and nestled beside Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and Iran and Iraq – makes it worth fighting for.
“Syria in a way sits at the crossroads of the Middle East, so whoever controls it has a substantial influence over what happens in the rest of the region, partly because Syria borders so many of these nations,” Leuprecht said.
“The tentacles from Damascus extend fairly far through that region, so being able to have a regime that’s friendly to you allows you to take considerable influence over trade and export markets.”
On the international stage
While pundits insist that Russia’s decision to veto the United Nations Security Council resolution won’t – in the long run – affect its already uneasy relations with Europe and the North America, Leuprecht notes that some regions were insulted by the rejection to help Syria.
The Gulf Corporation Council – composed of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates – likely severed any ties it had with Russia following the vote. The Arab League, afterall, called for a peace initiative for Syria.
“Russia has considerably compromised its links with these countries. Before, they saw Russia on the fence, not wanting to upset the equilibrium in this precarious part of the world. Now they’ve decided that the Russians can’t be trusted,” Leuprecht said.
In the past two decades, Russia’s world has got a lot smaller – it lost its Eastern satellite countries, a handful of cronies, such as Gadhafi, and its leverage over much of Africa.
Russia is already deeply invested in Syria and so its priorities include ensuring that Syria’s future aligns with a favourable outcome for Russia. Backing down from assisting Syria as the rest of the international world isolates them, at this point, could also come off as a weakness, Leuprecht suggested.
“Russians are seeing that the world, in the last 20 years, has not been going their way so part of this is hanging on to what they’ve got because they strategically can’t afford to have anything else slip out of their hands,” he said.
Comments