EDMONTON — Polls have indicated for weeks it’s going to be a three party race in the Alberta election. Polls have had the NDP with a double digit lead over the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose who have been in a close race for second.
However, many have pointed out polls have been wrong in the past, including in the 2012 provincial election, which had a final poll indicating the Wildrose would win a majority government, only to have the PCs win a clear majority.
READ MORE: Polls drive us crazy, but have political value
Global News asked political pundits to weigh-in with their predictions on elections results.
Bob Murray – Frontier Centre for Public Policy
Bob Murray is predicting Alberta’s Progressive Conservative will capture its 13th consecutive majority government.
“In order to see a change in government you’d have to have a perfect storm when it comes to vote splitting.
“The PCs would have to lose significant ground in really key areas, especially in Calgary and the rural, and I’m not necessarily sure that’s there,” Murray explained.
There has been speculation the NDP could sweep the Edmonton ridings, but Murray doesn’t agree. He predicts five Edmonton ridings will be won by non-NDP candidates: PC incumbents Thomas Lukaszuk, Gene Zwozdesky, David Xiao and Matt Jeneroux, as well as Liberal incumbent Laurie Blakeman.
WATCH: Bob Murray provides his analysis and prediction for Tuesday’s election
Janice Mackinnon – Former NDP finance minister under former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow
Janice Mackinnon is predicting the NDP will end the PC dynasty, winning a minority government.
Mackinnon believes the PC’s demise will be calling an early election, and including increased taxes and service cuts in their proposed budget before the writ was dropped.
“The record is pretty clear, voters punish parties that force early and unnecessary elections. For example, Michael Ignatieff and the federal Liberals and David Peterson in Ontario,” Mackinnon explained.
David Cournoyer – Edmonton political analyst and author of Alberta’s best-read political blogs
David Cournoyer is predicting NDP leader Rachel Notley and her party will capture a majority government Tuesday night.
The turning point happened when the PCs focused their attacks on Notley, which solidified her support, according to Cournoyer. He believes the anti-NDP attack campaign didn’t appear to scare many.
Cournoyer expects a strong turnout at the polls, with more than 60 per cent of eligible voters casting a ballot.
Kathleen Smith – Political commentator, better known on Twitter as @KikkiPlanet
Kathleen Smith is predicting the PC dynasty will capture 52 seats and continue its 13th straight majority government.
She predicts the Wildrose will form the official opposition by winning 17 seats, and the NDP will hold 14 seats. The Liberal party will hold two seats, Greg Clark will capture the Alberta Party’s only seat, and independent Joe Anglin will win the riding of Rimbey, Rocky, Sundre, according to Smith.
“Keeping in mind undecided and apathy are still an issue, and with election history showing us conservative voters are far more driven to vote than progressive voters, I’m predicting all the predictions were wrong and the ‘Orange Surge’ is mostly a fantasy,” Smith explained.
Alise Mills – Political strategist and commentator
Mills is predicting the PCs will remain in government, but for the first time in Alberta’s history it’ll be a minority government.
Her final prediction has the PCs capturing 43 seats, while the NDP would form the official opposition with 30 seats, followed by the Wildrose with 12 seats, and the Liberals and Alberta Party each winning one riding.
However, notes her number for the PCs could drop as low as 36 and as high as 51 due to the large number of swing ridings which are in play.
“The reason why these numbers could fluctuate is because for the first time in recent elections in Alberta, there is no split on the left/left of centre,” Mills explained.
So what will happen?
To see for yourself whether any of the predictions come true, tune in to Global’s election night on-air and online coverage. Our special Decision Alberta broadcast begins when the polls close at 8 p.m. You can watch live on Global Edmonton, Global Calgary, Global Lethbridge, on the Global Go app and right here on Globalnews.ca.
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