Will Dalton McGuinty achieve an historic third
majority? Or is Tim Hudak destined to be Ontario’s next Premier? And is
an orange tide likely to lift Andrea Horwath’s fortunes? To get an early
sense of how the October 6 election is likely to play out, Globalnews.ca has
compiled a list of key ridings watch on election night:
Toronto
Davenport
A long-time federal Liberal stronghold, Davenport fell to
the NDP in May. The Liberal margin of victory has been slowly falling
provincially election by election, and long-time Liberal veteran MPP Tony
Ruprecht has retired. Possible NDP pickup.
Don Valley East
For years a well-established Liberal seat federally and
provincially, Don Valley East fell to the Tories federally in May. The same
thing could happen provincially – Liberal MPP David Caplan isn’t running again
– but recent elections have showed a comfortable Liberal majority. Outside
chance of Tory pickup.
Don Valley West
The Conservatives picked this riding up federally by a
margin of a couple of hundred votes in May. But provincially, Transport
Minister Kathleen Wynne has carried the riding twice by solid majorities – in
2007, over then-PC leader John Tory. Liberal hold.
Eglinton-Lawrence
Federally, Eglinton-Lawrence fits a certain profile: Liberal
for ten consecutive elections, a Tory pickup in 2011. Provincially, Liberal
warhorse Mike Colle – first elected in 1995 – is battling former Toronto
mayoral contender (and, just to be complicated, former national director of the
federal Liberal party) Rocco Rossi. The Conservative candidate lost by
about 5 per cent in 2007, so Rossi’s challenge has to be taken seriously. Possible
Tory pickup.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Etobicoke-Lakeshore was the scene of former federal Liberal
leader Michael Ignatieff’s humiliating defeat in May. But provincially, Liberal
MPP Laurel Broten has been elected twice by about a 15% margin. Former CEO
Simon Nyilassy would be a star of Tim Hudak’s front bench, but this probably
isn’t his election. Outside chance of Tory pickup.
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Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Guildwood ended up as a Liberal hold federally,
but MP John McKay had to work for it, as margins of 20% or more were shaved to
a hard-fought few hundred votes. Jamaican-born Liberal MPP Margarett Best won
by a generous margin in 2007. Outside chance of Tory pickup.
905
Oshawa
Oshawa was once solid NDP country, with a long possession
going back to the days of the CCF. The riding slid away to the Tories in the
1990s. Tory MPP Jerry Oulette, elected in Mike Harris’s 1995 sweep, has held
the riding ever since, though he always has to work for reelection. Long-time
union leader Sid Ryan has run twice for this seat, but not this time. Probable
Tory hold.
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Bramalea-Gore-Malton was an upset victory for the Tories
this spring, one of the Liberal 905 and 416 seats that Stephen Harper’s
Conservatives picked up to form their majority. Could the Tories pick it up
provincially? It’s possible, but Liberal MPP took the riding by over 15% last
time. Probable Liberal hold.
Brampton West
Brampton West was a federal Tory pickup from the Liberals in
May. Once again, the same thing could happen provincially, but Liberal MPP Vic
Dhillon won by more than 15% last time. Probable Liberal hold.
Mississauga South
Comfortably Liberal for years, Mississauga South fell to the
Tories federally in May. Liberal incumbent, Labour Minister Charles Sousa, took
the riding by just over 5,000 votes in 2007, but can’t afford to be complacent.
The Liberals recently cancelled a controversial planned gas-fired power plant
in the area. Probable Liberal hold.
Oakville
A Conservative pickup federally in 2008. However, Oakville
Liberal MPP Kevin Flynn took the riding by about 15% in 2007. Probable
Liberal hold.
Pickering-Scarborough East
As with many other 905 ridings, this is an apparently secure
provincial Liberal riding that went for the Tories federally in May. On the
other hand, ex-Liberal MP Dan McTeague lost an apparently secure federal seat
that he had won by a comfortable margin in 2008, and Liberal incumbent MPP
Wayne Arthurs isn’t running again, so perhaps this seat is more in contention
than Arthurs’ 17% 2007 margin of victory would imply.
Outside central Ontario
Barrie
Provincially, Barrie is a red Liberal holdout in a sea of
blue. Liberal Aileen Carroll squeaked in in 2007 by just over a thousand votes,
so this could be one to watch. Probable Tory pickup.
Elgin-Middlesex-London
The Tories took this riding by an Alberta-sized majority
federally, but voters seem content to keep southwestern Ontario’s Liberal tradition
alive provincially. On the other hand, incumbent Liberal Steve Peters, who
served in the agriculture and labour portfolios, isn’t running again. Possible
Tory pickup.
Guelph
Liberal federally and provincially. Guelph is one of a
handful of Ontario ridings where the Greens do well enough to affect the
dynamic – in the 2008 federal election, the Green candidate polled a solid
third with 21% of the vote. If the Greens were ever to try for a Saanich-Gulf
Islands-style breakthrough in Ontario, it would be here. Guelph’s seat isn’t
really in contention, but is worth watching to see whether the Greens can be a
long-term fixture in Ontario politics, and whether their strong showing here in
the past was a high-water mark or sign of things to come. Liberal hold.
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, a classic bedrock Eastern
Ontario Tory stronghold, was taken from John Tory (who really couldn’t catch a
break) by Liberal Rick Johnson in a squeaker result in a 2009
by-election. This was the final humiliation that led to Tory’s resignation as
party leader the next day. (MPP Laurie Scott had resigned to give Tory a chance
to get elected to a seat.) The by-election was probably a one-off, but you
never know. Probable Tory pickup.
Sault Ste. Marie
Incumbent Liberal MPP David Orazetti would seem safe,
with 60% of the vote in 2007. Oddly, the federal contest in May was between the
NDP and Tories, with the Liberals a distant third. Liberal hold.
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Atikokan went to the NDP over the Liberals in
2007 by the tiniest of squeaker margins, which ensures that both parties will
take it seriously this time around. The NDP candidate in that election, John
Rafferty was elected federally in 2008 and 2011 for the same area (more or less
– federal and provincial boundaries are different in the north). Possible
NDP pickup.
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