WATCH: Scotland will hold a referendum on independence next week and recent polls show there’s a real chance the “Yes” vote could succeed. Now, Prime Minister David Cameron is begging Scots not to rip the U.K. apart. Stuart Greer reports.
In one week the world could see the rise of its newest independent country, as Scotland votes whether or not to break away from the United Kingdom and go it alone.
The latest poll numbers suggest anything could happen. The tide hasn’t entirely shifted to sovereignty, but support for the “Yes” vote has increased in the run up —so much so that British Prime Minister David Cameron darted to Scotland on Wednesday to plead with Scots to keep the U.K. together.
There’s now just six percentage points separating the yays and nays— 48 per cent of respondents say they’ll be casting a vote against independence and 42 per cent will be voting for it with 10 per cent undecided—but support for the Scottish independence has risen to its highest levels yet.
Blair McDougall, the campaign director for the “No” vote’s Better Together campaign, responded to the latest numbers saying “this is real, every vote could make difference” in a post on his verified Twitter account.
There’s a lot at stake for the U.K., which would lose its second largest country and about eight per cent of its population should the “Yes” be successful.
But, Scots have a lot to consider before making the decision to become independent, including what role the monarchy will play, what money they may use and what would happen with one of its main resources — oil.
The Queen: U.K. politicos and “No” vote supporters have called on Queen Elizabeth II to step in ahead of the vote, but she’s staying out of it, according to Buckingham Palace.
While she may not be getting in the middle of things, the Scottish government intends to keep the Queen as its head of state even if its union with England comes to an end.
“As is the case in the U.K., if a party in favour of changing this position was to gain enough support to form a government, it would be open to it to propose a change. The current Scottish government does not support such a change,” a comment from the Scottish government, on its website, read.
That would make Scotland similar to Canada, Australia and New Zealand, where the Queen is head of state.
Currency: The Scottish government appears happy to keep the pound, but Bank of England Governor Mark Carney — former governor of the Bank of Canada—said a currency union is “incompatible with sovereignty.”
That could leave the option to creating a new currency or adopt the Euro, which the sovereigntists aren’t that keen to do. Both of those options would leave Scotland with a currency that is worth less than what it uses now. As of publication the pound, which has stumbled with the recent poll numbers, was worth CDN $1.77 compared to $1.41 for the Euro.
Neither option would happen overnight. The Associated Press reported Scotland would have to first reapply to be a part of the European Union, then go through all the hoops other countries have had to go through to adopt the Euro.
And, as for a new currency, AP noted Ireland had to wait for six years to release the Irish pound after gaining independence in 1922. A report in the Scottish Sun this week cited a senior EU official saying it would take at least that long for Scotland to rejoin the EU.
“Having its own currency would provide the Scottish economy with the flexibility to make the necessary competitive adjustments and having its own central bank means that the appropriate level of interest rates can be set to suit the needs of the Scottish economy,” Neil MacKinnon, a global macro strategist, told The Associated Press.
Despite the warnings of Carney and others rallying behind the “No” campaign, the Scottish government, led by the Scottish Nationalist Party, insists it could stick with the pound sterling, through what is being called sterlingization — which basically means using the British pound unofficially in the way that Panama uses the U.S. dollar.
The U.K. government may not be able to stop that from happening, but it wouldn’t bode well for EU membership. The EU requires a country to have its own central bank in order to be a member.
Oil: The U.K. government has a big stake in the North Sea reserves and would risk losing the most of its oil revenue.
“Around 90 per cent of U.K. oil comes from areas that are likely to be claimed by an independent Scotland,” CNN Money reported Wednesday.
Oil and gas bring in a lot of money for Scotland and the U.K. as a whole, through tax revenues, but the Better Together campaign is trying to warn Scots it won’t prop up an independent economy.
“Nobody knows exactly how much is left but we know it is running out. While independence would be forever, oil is not,” the “No” campaigners said in online “fact sheet.”
The “Yes” front is trying to downplay the role of oil in its economy, saying “oil and gas revenue makes up a smaller part of Scotland’s economy than is the case for other oil producing countries.”
Still, the Scottish government claims there is a bright future lying in the oil reserves beneath the North Sea, estimating there is “up to £1.5 trillion” (CDN $2.6 trillion) worth of oil and gas yet to be exploited and that those resources would be best managed by an independent Scotland.
“Scotland is a wealthy country, and fortunate to have these resources. With “Yes” we will have powers to steward them properly for the benefit of the people who live here, whereas Westminster has wasted them,” the “Yes” campaign said in its campaign literature.
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