With less than two weeks remaining before Quebecers head to the polls, party leaders are preparing for a final French-language debate Wednesday night as a new poll suggests the Parti Québécois continues to hold a lead in the campaign, though a large share of voters remain undecided.
A Léger poll released Tuesday found PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party maintaining a consistent advantage over its rivals, with particularly strong support among francophone voters. The survey also found about 40 per cent of Quebecers are either undecided or could still change their minds before election day on Oct. 5.
“We’re two weeks away from the vote and to have four in 10 say, ‘I’m kind of wobbly, I could go another way,’ is a spectacular number,” said Sébastien Dallaire, Léger’s chief insights officer.
The poll suggests the PQ is six percentage points ahead of the second-place Quebec Liberals, while the Coalition Avenir Québec continues to lose ground after nearly eight years in government.
Dallaire said the Liberals have established themselves in second place but continue to struggle among francophone voters, limiting their ability to challenge the PQ provincewide.
“Because they trail badly among francophone voters, they are not really a threat to the PQ at this stage,” he said.
The PQ’s support remains below the 30 per cent mark, a level that historically has not guaranteed a majority government. But the party has nevertheless become the main target for rival leaders as the campaign enters its final stretch.
“Everyone is taking aim at the Parti Québécois,” said André Lamoureux, a political scientist and professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal.
The Radio-Canada debate on Wednesday will be the final opportunity for leaders to confront one another before the vote. The leaders have already participated in two debates over the past week.
Lamoureux said recent exchanges have highlighted how opponents are trying to slow the PQ’s momentum, though he suggested some attacks could backfire.
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Last week, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard argued that a majority of Quebecers do not want another sovereignty referendum. St-Pierre Plamondon responded by noting that an even larger share of Quebecers do not want a Liberal government.
“Will it be effective against the Parti Québécois? Or will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon take those attacks and redirect them with even more efficiency?” Lamoureux said.
Political observers say Wednesday’s debate could be especially important for Milliard, who remains less known to voters than his rivals and is seeking to broaden Liberal support beyond traditional strongholds in Montreal and among anglophone voters.
“Tomorrow’s debate will be especially important and crucial for Charles Milliard, who is the least known and the least experienced of these five party leaders,” said Daniel Béland, director of McGill University’s Institute for the Study of Canada.
Milliard has sought to capitalize on signs that Quebecers are looking for change after years of CAQ rule while warning that many voters remain reluctant to support the PQ because of its commitment to holding a referendum on sovereignty.
“Quebecers are actually asking for a change, they don’t want a referendum,” Milliard said.
At the same time, CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette is attempting to rebuild support for a party that has seen its standing decline in recent weeks. Lamoureux said Fréchette is also trying to distance herself from former premier François Legault’s government while convincing voters the CAQ can still offer an alternative.
“She is going to try to give it her all,” Lamoureux said. “That’s where we’ll see if her leadership can give mass appeal to her message and turn the tide.”
Retired political science professor Anne-Marie Gingras said the race remains competitive in many ridings despite the PQ’s lead, particularly between the PQ and the CAQ.
She said some voters appear increasingly frustrated with the state of provincial affairs and have not been persuaded by the CAQ’s attempts to highlight its accomplishments in office.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party of Quebec remains a distant fourth in the Léger poll but continues to show strength in the Quebec City region, where it is hoping to elect its first members to the national assembly.
Québec solidaire, meanwhile, sits at roughly one in 10 voters in the survey and risks losing some of the 11 seats it held before the election campaign.
The possibility of post-election alliances has also emerged as an issue in the campaign. St-Pierre Plamondon has dismissed the idea, saying an alliance with another party would be “absolutely out of the question” if no party wins a majority.
For now, however, much of the focus remains on the sizeable pool of undecided voters. With nearly four in 10 Quebecers still not firmly committed, analysts say Wednesday’s final debate could prove decisive in a race that remains fluid despite the PQ’s polling advantage.
–with files from The Canadian Press
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So I guess we just go back to old PQ or Liberal party? We tried all that for decades. Is it too much to ask if we try the Conservatives for once?