The fate of the province some five million people call home will be up in the air for the next five months, as Alberta voters mull a serious question: Do we stay or do we go?
Albertans will head to the polls this upcoming Oct. 19 for a historic referendum that could change the course of not just the Prairie province, but also Canada.
The vote, announced Feb. 19, initially contained nine questions to do with immigration and possible changes to Canada’s Constitution.
Then on May 21, Premier Danielle Smith announced a 10th question was being added, putting the issue of Alberta separatism in the hands of voter.
The question: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada? Or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
So how did we get here?
For the past few months, Global News journalists across Alberta have been digging into the issues at the heart of the independence referendum and this week, those stories are being shared.
Global News presents “Road to the Referendum.”
The week-long series will explore many topics, starting with the major developments leading up to the decision to hold a referendum.
We’ll hear from separatists on what is motivating them to want to leave — as well as federalists who are passionate about staying in Canada.
Read what they have to say here, in Inside Alberta’s separatism movement: Residents on what’s driving them to stay or leave.
We’ll explore the practical questions Albertans have about the real-life logistics of leaving Canada: what happens to our borders, currency, military and more?
Get daily National news
What happens to places like Lloydminster, which straddles both sides of the Alberta and Saskatchewan border?
Constitutionally, what would a yes vote or even holding a referendum mean to treaty rights — the constitutionally recognized, nation-to-nation agreements signed more than a century ago between the Crown and Canada’s Indigenous peoples?
The lands of five different treaty nations fall within the boundaries of Alberta: the big three are Treaty 8 across northern Alberta, Treaty 6 in Edmonton and central Alberta, and Treaty 7 stretching from south of Red Deer to the Canada-U.S. border. Small slivers of two other regions also stretch into Alberta: Treaty 10 near Cold Lake, and Treaty 4 east of Medicine Hat.
First Nations have won a pair of significant court battles limiting the provincial government’s ability to hold a constitutionally binding referendum. We speak with members of one First Nation leading the fight to stay in Canada about their perspective on the referendum.
What impact would a referendum or separation have on the economy?
What about the new pipeline to tidewater that Alberta’s government has long fought for and now, has a memorandum of understanding with the federal government to make happen?
Finance and business analysts have already said the separatist movement is spooking investors and big corporations, raising questions about the future of Alberta’s economic prosperity.
Proponents of an independent Alberta suggest writing our own economic story would bring prosperity and an end to any economic stagnation caused by federal policies.
Opponents counter that claim, arguing even entertaining the question will drive investment and jobs away, leaving Alberta a landlocked state with fewer options than before.
Canada has been down the separatism debate road before. We explore what cautionary tales came from the Quebec referendums and what long-term ripple effect could come from the next few months of referendum campaigning in Alberta.
High-profile provincial leaders, experts in politics and economics, and those who are pushing the hardest to both stay and leave have all been invited to join the conversation on our newscasts.
This story will be updated with each day’s coverage.
Subject: Warning About the “Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta”
People need to understand exactly what they’re looking at when they see the “Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta.” This document was prepared by the Alberta Institute, a political advocacy organization — not the Government of Alberta, not independent auditors, and not anyone following formal public sector accounting standards. That alone should make Albertans stop and look much closer.
The plan is not an audited budget and not prepared under GAAP — Generally Accepted Accounting Principles — or Public Sector Accounting Standards. It’s built on optimistic assumptions, selective data, and best case scenarios that fall apart the moment you apply real world scrutiny. Before anyone accepts these numbers, they should verify every major claim with reliable, independent sources, not rely on a document produced by an advocacy group.
The revenue projections are not guaranteed. They depend on perfect oil prices, uncertain CPP asset transfers, speculative economic growth, and savings that only exist if negotiations go exactly right. That’s not responsible fiscal planning — that’s gambling with Alberta’s future.
And the biggest danger is what the plan doesn’t tell you. The real costs of creating a new country — building federal level institutions, replacing national systems, negotiating debt, establishing borders, creating regulatory bodies, absorbing full program costs — are either minimized or barely mentioned. These are multi billion dollar, unavoidable expenses, and pretending otherwise is not transparency.
And what about seniors?
This is where the alarm bells should be deafening.
There are no concrete guarantees in this plan for:
• Old Age Security (OAS)
OAS is a federal program. An independent Alberta would have to replace it entirely. The plan does not show how it would be funded or protected.
• CPP pensions already earned
The plan assumes Alberta will receive a large share of CPP assets, but that number is disputed, not guaranteed, and would depend on negotiations that could take years.
Seniors and near retirees need certainty — not “we hope it works out.”
• Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS), survivor benefits, disability benefits, and other federal supports
All of these would have to be recreated and funded by Alberta alone. The plan does not provide clear, costed guarantees.
Seniors have paid into these programs their entire working lives. They deserve iron clad certainty, not vague promises and optimistic projections.
When a proposal hides the true costs, inflates the potential revenues, and offers no concrete guarantees for seniors’ pensions, that’s not a fiscal plan — that’s a warning sign. Alberta deserves honesty, transparency, and independently verified numbers before anyone is asked to make decisions of this magnitude.
The risks are real. The uncertainties are massive. And the consequences of getting this wrong could last for generations.
let’s take this whole separatist issue to the absurd:
alberta becomes a separate nation., the nation won’t be able to initiate a military force, canada will militarily invade the new alberta and annex it and will nationalize the oil and gas fiends
What separatists fail to remember is even if every single Albertan voted to separate, then all Treaty territories would remain under Indigenous control, which means that they would also remain under Canada’s dominion. The Treaties were signed with the Crown, so no provincial government has authority to override these agreements without first getting Indigenous groups to accept. Treaties 4,6,7,8 and 10 are enforceable under Canadian and International Law. They cover ALL of Alberta.
I am open to Separating but don’t think it will pass. Let’s have the vote in Oct and that will also reflect how deep the resentment for Ottawa is.
its funny how liberal news works , as every town or city ,had line ups around the block to sign the petition for Alberta separation , ended up on the news for 5 minutes, but Thomas Lukaszuk was on every night for a week, and poles saying nobody in Alberta wants separation , using psychology power of suggestion is not fooling anyone .
The paid for media is clearly scared as they are blowing Tax dollars at record pace for completely useless 20 polls a day desperately trying to get albertans to believe no one wants separation….everything is tmz now journalism is dead ……not a single journalist left in canada.
How did we get here? It’s called 11 years with a do-nothing federal gov’t. The LPC have driven away over a trillion dollars worth of investment to the country, most of which would’ve been in Alberta. Alberta will be better off going it alone. We have everything the world needs.
I am sure the paid for media will spend tons of time with Thomas Lukaszuk, the Nevil Chamberlain of our times.
Just the facts please Alberta did not join Canada! Canada created Saskatawan & Alberta to join both ends of the country! They were never separate They can”t afford themselves now, what will they do when they are alone. The US will make you a territory so fast your heads will spin and then where will you be You complain about your voter not mattering in Canad but territories of the US dont even get to vote. What uninformed sheep you are.
Arnold Chow: Prior to Brexit the Brits were told a lot of things that never materialized. They want to rejoin the EU now. An independent Alberta is not going to be as welcomed internationally as the malcontents say.
The real choice is between an imperfect status quo and a worse future.
Watched the piece on the news this morning and couldn’t stop laughing st globals blatant biased reporting ……what a joke.
A loud and proud bunch. They should have a colorful pride parade.
Albertans will vote on this in October. Most likely Quebec will vote on it in a few years if the PQ gets back. UK voted to leave the EU. This is democracy, would you rather be in a dictatorship where nothing is up for debate
Some people’s comments ask about the viability of Alberta Independence. If you have concerns go to the Alberta Prosperity Project’s website and read the “The Value of Freedom: Alberta’s Prosperity Under Independence” to get answers to all your questions.
The Value of Freedom: Alberta’s Prosperity Under Independence
Too bad Alberta could not restrict independence voting for citizens that have lived in Alberta more than 5 or 10 years. Alberta has had a huge influx of people from other parts of Canada and even from other countries that have no real idea of what Alberta has gone through since 1905 when Alberta joined Confederation. These new immigrants tend to clap like seals whenever the Federal Government is mentioned.
Always good to have discussions. Ability of all to have their views heard kind of the base of a democracy. Devil will be in the details of course.
Alberta is most welcome to join us here in MAGA. We love them.
its ridiculous liberals feel that Alberta needs to stay in a country with a corrupt communist government that as wrecking Canada with mass immigration, making it into a third world s**T hole , ridiculous spending tax money on donations to all other countries but Canada , YOU PEOPLE ARE BRAIN DEAD Alberta needs to leave your cluster f
Its ridiculous that this is even being entertained. Like how are they gonna do taxes? Or imports & export? Like do you hear the states talking like this? We are stronger together. Let’s be adults & figure this oit
And main stream media commences their campaign of fear and misinformation.
As they prompt the eastern belieg that Albertans should get to work, pay their taxes and shut up.
Carney and friends have one last chance, they must rescind all that anti-oil legislation and let business conduct business. Any more patronizing verbiage and the seperation groundswell will commence.
Lots of people support Danielle… more than the elbows up crowd in the media will have you believe. I would love to be alive still if either Alberta or frogville separated… Canada is toast anyways. 51 would be perfect.
Danielle Smith is a quite the recall, notwithstanding clause, referendum gift to swarmy lawyers.
Pay up Alberta.
Lawyer haven under this twat.