The Alberta government says it has picked the University of Calgary to study potential costs of the province leaving Canada.
The province has also formed what it calls an expert advisory panel to review the university’s report and provide an assessment.
The panel is led by economist Jack Mintz, a go-to expert for Alberta governments who has served on several advisory groups and panels in recent decades.
It also features business leaders and former politicians Janice MacKinnon, a Saskatchewan NDP finance minister, and Ted Morton, an Alberta Progressive Conservative finance minister.
The United Conservative Party government said in a news release that the panel’s involvement “will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts.”
In 2001, Morton was a signatory to the infamous Firewall Letter sent by Stephen Harper, before he became prime minister, to then-Alberta premier Ralph Klein.
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It called on Klein to take a number of steps to give Alberta more independence from Ottawa.
The province said the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy would “retain full and independent control over the final report.”
The school’s director, Martha Hall Findlay, said in the release that the school is pleased to do the analysis and she appreciates the independence.
Premier Danielle Smith and Finance Minister Jason Nixon have hinted at the report in recent weeks.
They said Albertans deserve to be informed ahead of the province’s Oct. 19 referendum, which will see Albertans vote on remaining in Canada or begin the process to have a second, binding vote on separation.
Smith has said she doesn’t think many of those in the separatist movement understand what separation would entail.
She estimated earlier this month that quitting Confederation could cost the province $400 billion — including Alberta’s share of the national debt, NATO commitments, forming armed forces and other startup costs — plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion.
Separatist leaders have pushed back on Smith’s math, claiming that forming a new country would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and an independent Alberta would post surpluses once tax revenue stops going to Ottawa.
The province said the university’s report is to look at transition costs, economic impacts, risks and possible savings.
“Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring Albertans have access to objective, evidence-based analysis so they can be confident in their decision,” it said in the release.
It said the report is expected to be shared by the end of summer, so Albertans have time to consider it before the referendum.
Nixon’s office did not immediately respond to questions about how much the report will cost the government.
We definitely have a proper federal leader to deal with these distractions.
…but the results will be accepted by ucpee as seen fit.
Ted Mortonthe Ph.D. in economics who spent the interestfrom the Heritage Fund to balance the budget. I learned in grade ten math studying simple and compound interest NOT to do that.
Hardly a credible analyst to estimate separation costs.
As Alberta’s separatist conversation resurfaces, I want to highlight what seems to me an essential democratic principle that often gets lost in the noise.
If separatists participate in a democratic vote on Alberta’s future — and lose — then they are obliged to accept the result. A movement that claims democratic legitimacy cannot reject democratic outcomes when they are inconvenient. Either one believes in the authority of the electorate or one does not.
Those who cannot accept the result still have an option: they may leave Alberta or Canada as individuals. What they cannot do is deny the legitimacy of the vote while insisting the province must adopt their minority position. That is fundamentally anti democratic.
Canada’s unity has always depended on a shared commitment to democratic rules, not on unanimity of opinion. If democratic outcomes are optional, then the entire system becomes untenable.
My hope is that federal leadership continues to assert this clearly: democracy binds all participants, not only those who prevail.
There is one thing missing from every conversation about Alberta separatism, and it’s the most important question of all: Who will lead it, and how will it actually be done?
People talk about separation like it’s a switch you flip. It isn’t. It would be the largest political, economic, and social upheaval in modern Canadian history. And yet the loudest separatist voices offer no plan, no leadership structure, no financial roadmap, and no explanation of how daily life would function during or after such a transition.
Right now, separatists are selling a fantasy — that Alberta could walk away and everything would stay the same, just without Ottawa. That is simply not true.
The reality is this:
• Every part of life would change — health care, pensions, taxes, trade, policing, borders, currency, education.
• Fewer people would be left to share the costs.
• No detailed financial plan exists.
• No transition plan exists.
• No leadership framework exists.
• No proof exists for the “billions in revenue” they keep promising.
They keep pointing to oil and gas as if it’s a magic solution. But investment does not flow into instability. Companies don’t pour billions into jurisdictions that look politically volatile or unpredictable. If Alberta became a question mark, not a stable partner, the very revenue separatists rely on would shrink, not grow.
Not once have separatist leaders shown the math. Not once have they detailed the costs. Not once have they explained how Alberta would function in the first five years of independence. They simply assume everything will work out.
This isn’t about Ottawa. This is about the lives of real Albertans.
People with mortgages, jobs, families, medical needs, retirement plans. People who deserve honesty, not slogans.
Before anyone pushes this province toward a cliff, they need to answer the basic questions:
1. Who leads?
2. What is the plan?
3. How will Albertans’ daily lives be protected during the transition?
4. Where is the financial model — with real numbers, not guesses?
Until those questions are answered, separatism is not a movement — it’s a gamble with people’s futures.
Albertans are being pushed toward a reckless and destabilizing path by groups who are exploiting frustration instead of offering solutions. These separatist voices are promoting the breakup of Canada without providing credible plans, qualified leadership, or any understanding of the consequences they are encouraging. Their message is built on anger and slogans, not on facts or responsible governance.
The truth is that Albertans know almost nothing about the backgrounds of the people driving this movement. Who are they? What experience do they have? What qualifies them to lead a province, let alone negotiate the creation of a new country? They have not identified a premier, a cabinet, economists, constitutional experts, negotiators, or anyone capable of managing the enormous responsibilities they claim Alberta should take on. A movement that cannot even name its leaders is not prepared to lead a nation.
Meanwhile, everyday Albertans are already overwhelmed by rising costs, economic uncertainty, and the pressures of daily life. Separation would add massive upheaval — pensions, borders, trade, currency, treaties, federal assets, debt division — and the people pushing it have shown no ability to manage any of it. They stir anger, but they do not offer answers. They divide neighbours, but they do not build solutions.
This rhetoric does not solve Alberta’s concerns. It weaponizes them. It deepens polarization at a time when we need stability and unity more than ever.
As someone seeking to lead Canada, your voice carries national weight. Silence in the face of this growing divisive rhetoric only allows it to spread. Albertans need to hear clearly that their frustrations are understood, but that tearing the country apart is not the answer. We need leadership that stands firmly for unity, stability, and constructive dialogue.
I am asking you to speak out — directly and unequivocally — against those who are pushing separation without transparency, without qualifications, and without any plan for the real world consequences. Alberta deserves better than to be used as a political battleground for anger and division.
Canada is worth strengthening — not breaking apart.
That is going to be impartial. A anti-seperation government institution hired by an anti-seperation government to do the costing.
Sure get a bunch of university leftists do the costing. I will save some time and money telling you that the results will be Ten Million Trillion dollars to print some passports and transfer over the police and pension plan.
They should also examine the cost of staying! I for one am tired of paying Quebec bills all the time!
that’s well worth the money, when Alberta dumps you elbows up clowns , you and your high inflation, over ran by immigration and sending money to every other country but Canada .Alberta will have a ballpark figure used for initial planning
And what’s this going to cost now??
Why task this matter to the far-left? We already know what will be in their report.