Confidence is waning in a new oil pipeline being chosen for a speedy federal review within the next year, a recent business sentiment survey from ATB Cormark Capital Markets suggests.
The investment firm canvassed executives representing 24 energy services firms, 22 exploration and production companies and 17 institutional investors on a range of topics between March 18 and April 1.
The survey found 46 per cent of respondents said they believed it was either highly probable or probable a new pipeline project would be added to the list of projects deemed to be in the national interest under federal legislation passed last year.
That’s down from the 52 per cent of respondents who expressed those views in a survey done between Aug. 28 and Sept. 11 of last year.
That was more than two months before Alberta and Ottawa announced a sweeping energy accord laying out conditions for a new West Coast oil pipeline to move ahead.
“People are losing faith that the Liberal government will actually fix any of the structural problems they created in the last 10 years,” an unidentified executive at a publicly traded exploration and production company said in a write-in comment alongside the survey.
Another executive with a small private energy services company called for “less talk and more action” in a write-in comment.
“Not one project (in oil and gas) has come to fruition,” that executive wrote.
“Start building, or better yet just get out of the way of industry. We need to see clear and concise direction from the feds that will support new projects and expedite them.”
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In the spring 2026 survey, 48 per cent of respondents said they believed the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney would actively work toward expanding the energy sector, up from 37 per cent in the fall 2025 poll — an opinion of the prime minister that’s moving in a more positive direction than the prospect of a pipeline.
Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding last November on a wide array of energy matters.
It included a path toward deeming a new oilsands pipeline to the West Coast eligible for a streamlined review.
Such a project would ship up to one million barrels a day to the West Coast for export to Asia, reducing Canada’s reliance on the U.S. market. The Alberta government is preparing an application to the federal major projects office later this year, with the goal of a private-sector company eventually taking it over.
The pipeline moving ahead is tied to the building of the massive Pathways carbon capture and storage project, and an eventual increase in the industrial carbon price that would support its economics.
The ATB Cormark survey period ended just as a deadline set out in the MOU was set to pass for agreements on Pathways funding and implementation of the higher carbon price. Those pieces remain unresolved.
Patrick O’Rourke, managing director of institutional equity research at ATB Cormark, said the glum outlook on the pipeline question could be tied to the timing of the survey period, when there was anxiety around deadlines being met.
Despite the skeptical survey responses, there was much about the Alberta-Ottawa agreement that was constructive, he said.
“Even the fact that you brought the federal and provincial governments to the table together was something that was almost unfathomable a few years ago,” he said.
Survey respondents also expressed more optimism about a proposal to revive part of the defunct Keystone XL cross-border pipeline — pursued by South Bow Corp. alongside Bridger Pipeline LLC — than a West Coast pipeline that so far no private-sector company has expressed interest in building.
“We’re seeing a desire from both Canadian and U.S. counterparties to continue to grow our ability to move barrels north-south,” said O’Rourke.
“The challenges around moving them east to west are probably more significant.”
The spring 2026 survey captured a time of extreme commodity price volatility, driven by the war in the Middle East. Tanker shipments have been all but frozen through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20 per cent of the world’s crude supplies normally passes on its way to open sea.
Global crude prices have surged up to 70 per cent above pre-war levels, but have since fallen back somewhat.
Eighty-six per cent of exploration and production respondents reported an improving business outlook over the next six months, while 67 per cent of energy services respondents said they expected activity levels to pick up.
Meanwhile, 82 per cent of buy-side investor respondents said they’ve become more bullish toward energy over the past six months.
“A lot of these businesses have business models that work very, very well at crude prices in the US$70 to US$75 (per barrel) range,” O’Rourke said.
“So I don’t think you need US$90 to US$100 crude in any sort of length here to make these businesses compelling investments.”
Only Alberta considers a new pipeline in national interest. Been saying as much for decades. Pretty pointless with the tanker ban however. All issues that disappear with an independent Alberta and Canada being forced under the UN charter to then allow pipelines and tankers. UN isn’t good for much but it will definitely help an independent Alberta thrive.
Bill and the others here stating it should be private money building the pipelines. I agree and that should be the case for the hi speed rail line as well. It makes even less economic sense than a pipeline.
Nobody has the internet or a TV? Give or take…back in the day…9 proposed pipelines. No interest. Justin and the citizens of canada bought alberta a pipeline. If it wasn’t for Justin there would be none. The glory days are long gone. Shouldn’t of even had the one Justin gave you.
I post a comment maybe once a week, but a pop-up says I’m posting too quickly slow down…😂😂😂😂
Wtfrack?
I am amazed by the amount of comments stating ” the private sector can build their own pipelines”. How soon people forget that it was exactly that what Kinder Morgan had proposed and was doing!!. The private sector hasnt forgotten on why they pulled from TMX but obviously most of the left has. You can argue this until you are blue in the face but until tanker bans and these frivolous land rights are dealt with, you will never see private investment in energy, mining ect. Canada will continue to survive on the citizens tax payments funding this government ponzi scheme for now, but what will be done when the monies run out?. Decades of talk and lack of actions is why we are where we are today.
Unfortunately all the roadblocks put in place by the federal liberal government since 2015 have forced companies to look outside of Canada to build in the oil and gas industry.
Canadians subsidized the petroleum industry to the tune of 29.6 billion in 2024. Now they’re making windfall profits from the Epstein Distraction War. Let them build their own pipelines.
I just read a recent article about the cost and consequences of abandoned wells and oil fields being dumped on taxpayers once big oil companies have extracted all the profits from them. What has Alberta or the oil companies done in the past ten years to deal with the remediation of polluted properties? Or is it only tax dollars flowing into big oil that we are concerned with?
This has to happen if we want to reduce our economic dependence of the US
For some reason tax payers would rather spend millions spent on a train from Toronto to Montreal. They’d rather see millions of their dollars sent overseas or millions given to immigrants so they can live for free. They don’t want fuel prices to go down and they don’t want the goods they buy to cost less. A pipeline shouldn’t be all government funded i agree but its a national project that does need their involvement to make life cheaper for all Canadians.
Canadians are NOT interested in funding another pipeline. Industry needs to do it themselves. Enough with the corporate welfare
October 19
…more telling is no companies have come forward saying they are interested in building a line. Why do you think that is?
No Smith. The deal is: Private sector must drive and own the pipeline. Quit blaming the feds. If Big Oil wants it, they pay for it. In the MOU.
That MOU signed by Carney might as well have been written on septic safe toilet paper. At least then it would have been useful.
B.C’s economy stalls when environmentals are voted into provincial leadership and wiping out industrial economic gain for decades due to climate legislation.
Mitch is so right on. Global is trying to spin it so that the Canadian oil companies are not interested in east/west oil shipments. Far from it. It is, as Mich points out, the ban on oil tankers, and red tape and natives that the Liberals keep pulling in to make pipelines less attractive.
Remove them all, and watch the oil and natural gas flow.
I see 4 oil rigs outside my back door. Hardly a sign of lack of interest in the oil companies part. – Just waiting for the promised green light.
Of course the industry has no confidence, you dont create confidence by promising to pick and choose maybe 1 or 2 new projects to go ahead, you do so by removing the barriers that lets these companies operate independent of whether the Federal government believes in the economic benefits or not. Energy companies should obviously know how to pick investments that will bear a return, the Liberal government hasnt shown that aptitude.
there will be no pipeline. we need more access right now its an obvious delay tactic.