Justin Trudeau often seemed most comfortable when he was playing the role of the underdog and overcoming expectations.
Throughout his career he’s been dismissed as a lightweight, first by members of his own party, then by a Conservative regime that sneered at his eligibility to lead the country, and by his opposition critics ever since.
His greatest electoral success — taking the Liberals from a third-place rump to a commanding majority government in 2015 — is emblematic. His critics claimed he was “just not ready,” made cracks about his hair or flashy socks, and watched in disbelief as Canadians disagreed.
There was a sense after that election that Trudeau and his closest handlers had a handle on the Canadian zeitgeist, that he was a leader who was not isolated from the public but happy to mingle with the crowd.
That victory led to some marquee policies of the Trudeau era, including carbon pricing, legalizing marijuana and medical assistance in dying, increased assistance for families with children and a sweeping reform of Canada’s national security apparatus. But it also sowed the seeds for scandals to come — the SNC-Lavalin affair, repeated ethics violations, revelations he wore blackface multiple times, allegations he overlooked concerns about foreign interference, and his government’s handling of the economy.
In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, Conservative politicians and pundits were bullish on their chances to unseat Trudeau. Like Stephen Harper before him, many opposition partisans simply could not understand the prime minister’s appeal.
In both contests Trudeau overcame significant challenges — in the first instance weathering multiple scandals, and in the second pulling off a win after trailing for the first weeks of the campaign — to return the Liberals to Ottawa with minority mandates.
But being chronically underestimated and winning anyway does seem to have side effects.
At times throughout his tenure, Trudeau seemed arrogant, hot-headed and stubborn. Sometimes he seemed so sure of the fundamental rightness of his positions and didn’t feel the need to convince anyone else.
Trudeau could be flippant, dismissive, and slow to react to people’s very real concerns if he didn’t share them. The empathy Trudeau can exude on the campaign trail did not always show up when he was governing.
As Canadians’ priorities changed Trudeau did not seem to take notice, or only belatedly reacted — think the “affordability” measures announced in late 2024 after Canadians had been struggling for months. In recent years he and his small circle of trusted advisers have seemed increasingly isolated, from not only the Liberal caucus but the public.
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The 2015 election was decided in part on big things — climate change, addressing systemic inequality and making significant investments while running deficits.
Those things, of course, still matter in 2024. But poll after poll shows Canadians are now more concerned about affording housing and putting food on the table. It’s harder to convince people to focus on the big picture hundreds of thousands are struggling to keep the lights on.
That is, in part, what was behind the increasingly panicked grumbling from the Liberal caucus over the last two years. Backbench MPs — many who owed their election victories in no small part to Trudeau — were getting earfuls on the doorstep. The priorities of Trudeau and his increasingly small inner circle of advisers did not line up with voters’ concerns, like the cost of living.
When Canadians were hit with soaring inflation, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had been harping about the risks for months. Trudeau and his team still managed to appear caught unawares. While housing has been a consistent theme for the Trudeau Liberals, people didn’t believe the government’s plans were working — real estate prices kept climbing, demand outstripping supply.
The disconnect was reflected in public polling, which has had the Liberals consistently and sometimes dramatically behind the Conservatives since Poilievre took over in 2022.
Trudeau maintained he was looking forward to running against Poilievre, and as questions about his political future got louder, he stubbornly insisted he would lead the Liberals into the next election. The underdog was ready for a scrap.
But in the end, it wasn’t a fight with the Conservatives that took Trudeau down. In the best tradition of the Liberal Party of Canada, it was his own party abandoning him.
Hope and (increasingly) hard work
There’s always a gap between a politician’s ambition and the results they deliver. But at times during the Trudeau era — particularly toward the end — that gap seemed especially pronounced.
Still, while Trudeau’s legacy will be debated for years to come, it’s undeniable that his governments accomplished some big things. Carbon pricing, once a political third rail in Canada, was seen as a transformative environmental policy — even if its future is up in the air under a Conservative government.
The daycare deals with the provinces could drive down a significant cost for new parents, who also receive larger child-care cheques under the Liberals’ Canada Child Benefit. Various tax changes — some achieved, some aborted — have shifted the conversation about taxing the wealthy in an era of increasing income inequality.
Other big changes brought with them some significant challenges. The Liberals dramatically boosted immigration targets, welcoming more newcomers each year, until the backlash over the lack of housing supply and access to health care — blamed by some on immigrants, rather than provincial governments — forced them to step back their ambitions.
Trudeau’s early embrace of running deficits — in contrast to the balanced books orthodoxy of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives — was seen as a turning point in the 2015 election, and fuelled the Liberals’ spending programs. But the prime minister’s seeming indifference to fiscal prudence ended up costing him two finance ministers, Bill Morneau and, more recently and disastrously for Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland. It’s also drawn consistent ire from the business community and more “centrist” Liberals that came up during the Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin era.
And while Trudeau has consistently told his ministers that reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples needs to be central to their work, the government estimates there are still 31 long-term drinking water advisories on 29 reserves — nine years after the Liberals promised to end them.
But any conversation about Trudeau’s legacy will have to take into account how the Liberals navigated two simultaneous crises — the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to the Canadian economy.
A full assessment of how Canada handled the outbreak of the pandemic would need to include the measures taken by provinces and local governments to slow the spread of the virus. But the federal government’s two flagship policies — the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) — helped millions to keep their jobs and keep their lights on during the worst days of the lockdown era.
Trudeau was extremely visible to Canadians during those days, providing regular press conferences from the steps of Rideau Cottage.
After Trump’s first election in 2016, Trudeau’s office spearheaded a “Team Canada” approach — enlisting the federal cabinet, provincial premiers, and business leaders from across the political spectrum to try and salvage relations with the country’s largest trading partner.
While there were bumps along the way — like having to retaliate in kind after the Trump administration slapped tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products — the Trudeau government was ultimately able to renegotiate a new trilateral free trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico.
COVID-19 is still here and Trump has returned to the White House. Trudeau’s role in navigating both issues will be intrinsically tied to any reflections on his time as prime minister.
What comes next for the Liberals
Electorally, Trudeau must be reckoned with some of the more successful prime ministers in recent history, having won three straight elections and governed for almost a decade. Since 1979, only two other prime ministers — Chrétien and Harper — have won three elections in a row.
Politically, Trudeau’s performance is murkier. He and a small team of advisers effectively remade the Liberal Party, cutting ties with the old guard, changing membership rules and revolutionizing how the party runs campaigns.
But he’s also faced criticism that, under his leadership, the party has become a cult of personality with an extremely small group of powerful figures that call the shots. At one time, Trudeau talked about empowering ministers and reducing the PMO’s vice grip on decision-making. Even Liberal partisans will tell you the opposite took place.
Whatever comes next will be hard for the Liberals.
Based on national polling, the next leader could be seen as a placeholder. Horserace polls have consistently suggested that the Liberals will receive a drubbing from Poilievre’s resurgent Conservative party in the next federal election, whenever it comes.
The Liberals will never know for certain if that would’ve changed if Trudeau had stepped down earlier and given another leader more time to build up name recognition and a fresh campaign machine. But you can bet that hypothetical will be discussed in Ottawa for some time.
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