Iran’s direct attack on Israel this week has once again raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East — one that could now directly involve two of the region’s most well-armed nations.
Israel and the United States have warned of “consequences” for Iran after it fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. The barrage was mostly intercepted by Israel’s vast air defence system and U.S. naval destroyers.
It remains unclear what those consequences will be. But Iran has said any response from Israel would be met with “stronger and more powerful” retaliation in kind.
That raises further questions of where the tit-for-tat leads — and if Iran is prepared for what happens if its next strike on Israel actually gets through and hits an Israeli population centre.
“They should expect a very fierce response, not just from Israel but from the United States as well. And Iran knows that,” said Hagar Chemali, a counterterrorism expert and former White House National Security Council director for Lebanon and Syria.
How did we get here?
Iran has long backed the various militant groups currently fighting with Israel: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and more recently the Houthis in Yemen, in addition to various other proxies in Syria and Iraq.
Many of those groups and others have been designated as terrorist organizations by Canada, the U.S. and other allies, as have Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. All are opposed to Israel’s existence in the Middle East.
Since Hamas’ deadly assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, sparked by Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, Iran has been supporting proxy attacks — like Hezbollah’s cross-border missile strikes and the Houthis hitting ships in the Red Sea — that are in solidarity with Hamas, while avoiding taking direct action against Israel itself.
But that backseat approach has become increasingly difficult as Israel targets Iranian assets in the region because of that proxy support, and within Iran itself.
In April, an Israeli strike hit the Iranian consular compound in Damascus, Syria, killing more than a dozen people including top IRGC commander Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy.
The strike led to Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel later that same month, a barrage of drones and missiles that were either intercepted or failed to reach their targets. A seven-year-old girl in Israel was severely wounded by shrapnel, and other civilians sustained minor injuries.
Since then, Israel has only gotten bolder. In July, an airstrike in the heart of Tehran in July killed Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
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“The Israelis have basically said to Iran, ‘listen, we don’t want to play this game. We consider you the mothership (to these proxy groups),'” said Alex Vatenka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
“Iran right now is cornered, essentially.”
Back-to-back mass explosions of electronic devices in Lebanon last month killed hundreds, including Hezbollah fighters. Lebanese officials and multiple U.S. media reports citing American officials say the attacks were an operation carried out by Israel’s Mossad intelligence service and the Israeli military.
Last weekend, an airstrike on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah — one of the most powerful figures in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and U.S. interests in the Middle East. More Hezbollah commanders have been killed since then.
Iran vowed revenge, which appeared to come on Tuesday.
The Pentagon said Tuesday’s attack on Israel was “twice the size” of April’s barrage and involved more advanced ballistic missiles that are harder to intercept.
What capabilities does Iran have?
According to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.
Those missiles deliver warheads containing either conventional explosives or potentially biological, chemical or nuclear munitions over varying distances and speeds, depending on the missile type.
Estimations of those ranges vary. The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-governmental organization, says Iran’s ballistic missiles have a range up to 1,000 km, but said other missiles under development can reach targets up to 2,500 km away. Iranian state media claims those longer-range missiles are already available.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in the 1990s that forbade the development and use of nuclear weapons.
But Iran’s intelligence minister has warned that stance could change if it was “cornered,” and there are fears within the international community that Iran could still use its nuclear program to produce such a weapon relatively quickly.
Israel is also widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, but there is no concrete evidence and the country has not acknowledged or denied their existence.
Vatenka says Iran’s air force is fairly weak with an outdated fleet, leaving its missile program and regional proxies as its two main ways to strike Israel.
But those inside Iran say the country has long focused on building up its defences since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, which devastated Iranian society and saw widespread use of chemical warfare by the Iraqis under Saddam Hussein.
“The most important thing is to survive in this region,” said Hamidreza Gholamzadeh, secretary general of the Asian Mayors Forum and director of the Tehran-based House of Diplomacy think tank.
“Iran is very well equipped with that and is ready to protect this red line, this serious red line of its security and stability.”
Gholamzadeh added the Iran-Iraq War also steeled the Iranian people for the possibility of direct conflict with Israel.
“Even if this happens and huge damages are inflicted upon Iran, the situation would not be worse than … that time,” he said. “And we survived that time.”
Does Iran have allies?
Iran itself has long enjoyed beneficial relationships with Russia and China in joint opposition to U.S.-led western alliances. But within the Middle East, it is relatively isolated.
Vatenka said other Arab countries aren’t looking to side with non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas that also threaten their own monarchies. And although Iran has supplied Russia with drones and other materials for Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Iran shouldn’t expect Russia to return the favour.
“I really cannot point to a single country that I can tell you for sure now will come to Iran’s aid,” he said. “Iran is in many ways alone.”
Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday visited Qatar, a nation long positioned as a mediator in regional disputes including ceasefire talks in Gaza. But Gholamzadeh said Iran is focused on ensuring Arab countries don’t support Israel in the next phase of the conflict and pressure the U.S. and other western allies to back off.
Despite the Iranian regime’s weak standing at home — seen most recently in the mass protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini — and economic struggles from crippling sanctions, Tuesday’s strike on Israel was met with celebrations in the streets of Tehran.
Those rallies were fuelled by what Gholamzadeh said is the Iranian people’s deep hatred of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, and national pride that overwhelms any domestic issues.
“There are many people who are discontent with the bad economy,” he said. “There are many people who are against the hijab. But they are serious in defending their own country.”
— with additional files from the Associated Press and Reuters
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