While the byelection slated for Sept. 16 in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona riding will be important for residents of that community, a political scientist says it may not be a great predictor of the next federal election.
“People like to read a lot into byelections, especially when we’re sort of close to a federal election, and especially when the numbers are looking strong for the Conservatives,” Shannon Sampert told Global Winnipeg.
“But frankly, byelections in the fall don’t normally count for a lot. I wouldn’t read a great deal into the outcome. This is a firmly held NDP spot.
“If it does go to the Conservative candidate, I don’t think you can say it’s a bellwether and it looks like this means that (Opposition Leader) Pierre Poilievre is going do well in the polls come the next election. We know that already that there are strong indications he’s going to do well.”
The Elmwood-Transcona seat was previously held by NDP MP Daniel Blaikie, who stepped down after three terms to take on a role in Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s provincial government.
Since its creation in 1988, the riding has been primarily the domain of the New Democrats, with Blaikie’s father Bill serving as MP for two decades, followed by Jim Maloway from 2008 to 2011.
In the 2011 election, Conservative Lawrence Toet scored an upset victory, before being replaced by Daniel Blaikie in 2015.
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In September’s byelection, the NDP candidate is Transcona BIZ director Leila Dance, who will be up against construction electrician Colin Reynolds (Conservative) and former teacher Ian MacIntyre (Liberal).
Reynolds made headlines earlier this week when it was revealed that the business manager of his own union endorsed the NDP candidate.
Sampert said while byelections like Elmwood-Transcona’s — and one being held the same day in Quebec’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun riding — may not be a bellwether of things to come, they can still be instructive for parties.
“It’s an opportunity for the campaign to run a little mini-campaign for the big event, and see where the where the problems are and sort of to hone their message down the line,” she said.
“So it’s an opportunity. But it’s an opportunity to see where your strengths and weaknesses are … but don’t play into it and also recognize turnout is really, really low (in a byelection).”