British Columbia is projected to land in the middle of the pack when it comes to food price increases for 2024, with costs at the grocery store predicted to be on par with the national average.
The forecast, published Thursday in the 14th edition of Canada’s Food Price Report, also found that B.C.’s food prices increased 5.9 per cent between September 2022 and 2023. It’s the median in a list topped by Quebec and Prince Edward Island’s 5.7 per cent, and bottomed out with Saskatchewan’s five per cent.
B.C. is the only province whose food prices are forecast to be average next year — all other provinces apart from Quebec, P.E.I. and Newfoundland and Labrador are projected to have above-average increases.
According to Kelleen Wiseman, academic director of Food and Resource Economics and the University of British Columbia, the province’s proximity to major fresh food sources like Mexico and California sometimes provide a bit of a cost buffer.
“Our prices for those particular areas — fruits and vegetables and some of those fundamentals — are traditionally a little bit lower than in the rest of Canada,” she told Global News.
“So our prices will go up, but in B.C. they won’t go up quite as much.”
The annual food price report is led by teams from Dalhousie University, UBC, the University of Guelph and the University of Saskatchewan, which use price data from the past 100 years to help create prediction models. Global events and other potential impacts are also factored in to form a detailed outlook for the months to come.
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It found that with cooling inflation, food prices nationwide are likely to increase between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent next year, down from the five to seven per cent that was forecast for 2023. In 2023, the report adds, Canada did see an average increase of 5.9 per cent — the same as in B.C.
n 2024, meat, bakery items and vegetables are expected to see the biggest cost increase at between five and seven per cent, while dairy products and fruit may only increase by one to three per cent. The tab at restaurants is expected to rise between three and five per cent — the same increase forecast for seafood products.
All those numbers are worrisome for Mahmood Zafar of the Surrey Food Bank, who said he’s having a hard time stocking shelves with sufficient supply to meet demand as it is.
“This means we will be buying expensive vegetables, fruits and milk and eggs. It’s also going to push Canadians below the poverty line … this means we’ll be seeing more and more Canadians coming to food banks,” he said.
The Surrey Food Bank serves more than 200 and 300 people per day. It’s an increase of up to 45 per cent from last year.
This year, Zafar said he has observed two new trends — first, an increase in new clients, and second, an increase in returning clients who had previously been able to step away from food banks.
“The people who come to the food bank for the first time — it’s an emotional trauma for them,” he said. “There are mental health issues as well. We need to do something before it’s too late.”
According to the 2024 report’s researchers, on average, a family of four can expect to spend up to $16,297.20, an increase of about $701.79 compared with what was spent in 2023. A two-adult household is expected to spend about $7,715.78, an increase of about $4 from the predicted amount the year prior.
Next year’s expected increases come as food inflation sits at about 5.4 per cent, according to Statistics Canada figures released last month. September saw the rate at about 5.8 per cent which was a drop from 6.9 per cent in August.
Grocers, meanwhile, have faced mounting pressure from the federal government to stabilize food prices, which has included a proposed grocer code of conduct.
In order to save at the till, Wiseman suggested British Columbians keep their eyes peeled for sales — in stores, in flyers, on signs and in a variety of well-updated smartphone applications. Other tricks include switching to frozen food where possible, buying in bulk and looking for bundles, she added.
— with files from Janet Brown and Sean Previl
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