Conceding a single point

In the first two parts of this series, we’ve discussed how valuable field position is in Canadian football, and what the statistics would tell us to do after conceding a field goal. In this third part, I get a little deeper into the numbers, and examine a decision a player has to make on the fly.

I was there in Burnaby, B.C., in 2009 on the night Jeremy Botelho set a CIS record that will never be beaten. He caught a missed field goal, his heels just shy of the end line. 129 yards later he had the longest possible return for a touchdown. About 85 yards after that, when Botelho got to the sidelines, he got a pat on the back from head coach Brian Dobie that quickly turned into a lecture about why he should have taken a knee and conceded a single.

I’m sure in Jeremy’s mind he thought “Yeah, but I scored!” And it was an “I was there when” moment for me calling the play-by-play. But we have to remember that one result on one kick is not proof of anything. A bad decision is a bad decision, regardless of the result. And Coach Dobie believed that was a bad decision.

Plays like that made me wonder when we should return kicks from the end zone. Using the previous expected value calculations and tracking every kick into the end zone in a Canada West game from 2006-12 has helped to answer that question.

At the CIS level, we need to break the returns into different categories because of the different treatment of scrimmage kicks and kickoffs.

• Missed field goals and punts: A return that gets out of the end zone gets at least the 20-yard line.
• Kickoffs: The returning team gets the only the yard line achieved.

Determining the expected value of conceding a single point is easy. It’s -1 point on the scoreboard. And then we gain 0.92 points for having possession at our 35-yard line. That makes the decision to concede a single worth -0.08 points. Now to the task of determining the value of returning the ball.

MISSED FIELD GOALS

The CIS has what seems to be a great rule to encourage returns from the end zone. It says that if we catch a punt or missed field goal in the end zone, as long as we return the ball out of the end zone, we will get no less than the 20-yard line (barring penalty). As a result, the majority of returns (near 80 per cent) end with a team taking possession at its 20-yard line.

Let’s focus on missed field goals first. Figuring the expected value of a return from the end zone requires considering several possibilities:

• We could get out of the end zone and get an automatic placement at the 20.
• We could get out of the end zone and not get placement at the 20 because of penalty.
• We could return it past the 20.
• We could score a touchdown.
• We could be conceding 15 yards to our opponent for their next possession (the difference between the 35 and 20).

And for these calculations, I will weight all the factors by the percentage of times that they happened. The expected value of starting at our 20 is 0.49 points. It happens 74 per cent of the time. So it’s “weighted EV” in this case is 0.36 points. We’ll do the same for the other starting field positions.

From 2006-12 three missed field goals were caught in the end zone and returned for touchdowns. Divided by the number of times missed field goals were returned:

Now if we choose a course of action that gets us the ball on the 20 when we could have had the 35, we are likely conceding 15 yards to our opponent on their next possession. We should factor that in for a more-complete decision.

So, add them all up:

Compared to giving up a single (which has an expected value of -0.08 points), under average conditions, returning a missed field goal from the end zone is 0.38 points better.

PUNTS

I’m reluctant to say much about returning punts from the end zone because there isn’t a lot of data. From 2006-12 there were 56 punts returned from the end zone. Fifty of them ended up with placement at the 20-yard line.

With only two punts returned past the 20-yard line, how can you accurately measure the value of that kind of return?

That said, using the same formula as with missed field goals, the expected value of returning a punt from the end zone is -0.01 points. While that is 0.07 points better than conceding a single, more study is needed here.

KICKOFFS

Unlike in the NFL, very few kickoffs in Canada West make it to the end zone. By my count, just under four per cent broke the goal line.

When kickoff returns are attempted from the end zone, from 2006-12 only one got past our 40-yard line (and the returner was stopped at the 41).

The median return is the 18.5 yard line. And remember that there’s no automatic placement at the 20 on kickoffs. When we consider all the returns individually, the average EV of the field position achieved is 0.52 points.

Since our team could have had the 35, we’re conceding field position to our opponent on the next drive (most times, but not all). That difference is worth -0.35 points.

We know from the previous example that conceding a single and taking possession at the 35 is worth -0.08 points. That makes returning a kick 0.25 points better.

Going off of play-by-play data doesn’t tell us what kind of kickoff went into the end zone. Having a ball caught in the air would be very different from one that scooted past a returner and he had to chase it 10 yards into the end zone. A natural assumption would be that in the data, such troubling kickoffs were not returned very often. So perhaps it would be best to say the 0.25-point advantage assumes the returner can catch it cleanly, or relatively cleanly.

Next: Coaches concede too many safeties

Your comments are very helpful in my ongoing research. Please comment below or contact me directly at derek.taylor@globalnews.ca