Tuesday evening, British Columbians will either give Christy Clark and the Liberals four more years, or elect a new government in the form of Adrian Dix and the NDP.
Here’s a list of ridings to watch:
1. Oak Bay-Gordon Head The Green party stands their best chance here, running climate change scientist Andrew Weaver as candidate. It should be a three-way race, as Ida Chong still retains support in areas of this very diverse riding.
2. Vancouver-Pt. Grey The premier’s riding against David Eby for the rematch. If the NDP wins the election, she’ll be defeated. If the Liberals win, she may win.
3. Kamloops-North Thompson Historically, Kamloops is a bellwether riding, as it elects a government member. This is the poorer, more urban, of the two seats, and Environment Minister Terry Lake is in a giant fight to keep his seat.
4. Abbotsford South A normally safe Liberal seat is in play because John van Dongen quit the party and is running as a popular independent. The Liberals are running their own star candidate on Darryl Plecas, but the NDP could squeak through with to win with just 35%.
5. Cariboo North Another riding where an independent incumbent, Bob Simpson, looks to keep his seat. The Liberals and NDP are running two strong candidates in Coralee Oates and Duncan Barnett.
6. Vancouver-Fairview NDP is running high-profile labour leader George Heyman against incumbent Margaret MacDiarmid. A swing seat that spans several diverse Vancouver communities (Fairview, Shaughnessy, Mt. Pleasant), and will probably go to the party that wins the election.
7. Langley Normally safe Liberal seat is held by Mary Polak, the Transportation Minister who had her campaign manager quit last week over gay rights issues. Conservative leader John Cummins is running there to make things interesting.
8. Delta South Incumbent Independent Vicki Huntington has a good shot to be reelected, although the Liberals are making this a priority for them, with Christy Clark making a last day campaign stop.
9. Boundary-Similkameen Both the Liberal incumbent (John Slater) and NDP candidate (Marji Basso) have stepped aside, while Conservative candidate Mischa Popoff was forced to become an independent, turning what probably was an NDP win into the dark unkown.
10. Burnaby-Lougheed The NDP has their eyes on this seat held by Harry Bloy of the Liberals, but their candidate (Jane Shin) has had her credentials and online conduct come under scrutiny. The Burnaby general hospital fiasco may be a local issue.
11. Chilliwack-Hope The NDP seat that has the best chance of reverting back to the BC Liberals sees a rematch from the 2012 byelection—and Laurie Throness is hoping to be on the winning end for the Liberals this time around.
12. Saanich North The Liberal base is shrinking here and the Greens are growing. (Elizabeth May’s riding federally). Could switch to NDP, but the Greens recruited a popular Central Saanich city councilor (Adam Olsen), and this is seen as the Green Party’s second best chance at a seat.
14. Prince George-Valemount A seat containing the city centre of Prince Geoge held since 2001 by Shirley Bond. The NDP are running a popular media personality against her. Either a big takedown by the NDP, or a Lib stalwart hanging on.
15. Kootenay East The irascible Bill Bennett holds this seat, and the NDP has poured resources into this riding to try and knock him off and sweep the Kootenay region.
16. Surrey-Fleetwood Langley Mayor Peter Fassbender is running for the Liberals here, in this swing riding about 10 kilometres from Langley. The NDP won this riding by 9% last time, but this is one of the few seats where the Liberals have an outside chance of taking a seat.
17. Penticton Penticton Mayor Dan Ashton is running for the Liberals, and is quite popular. But Penticton has become more urban working class over the years, helping the NDP—as does a lack of Green candidate in a riding where they got 15.6% of the vote last election.
18. Vancouver-False Creek The main “Downtown Vancouver” riding sees former Vancouver Mayor Sam Sullivan (Liberals) go up against gaming executive Matt Toner (NDP). Sullivan never lost a general election in his municipal career, and the Liberals won this by 29% last election – but Metro Vancouver has turned more towards the NDP this election than any other part of the province.
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