Caucus Support
Today Doug Horner formally kicked off his campaign to become the next PC Leader…and it wasn’t so much what he said but who he was with when he said it that’s drawing attention. Horner was flanked by a number of high-ranking MLAs/Ministers…among them Hector Goudreau, Ray Danyluk, Frank Oberle, Luke Oullette, Wayne Drysdale, Jack Hayden and Dave Quest. Horner says he will make a similar announcement with “southern Alberta” MLAs in Calgary next week…and says in total, he’s sure of the support of fifteen MLAs. Gary Mar has an equal number of caucus supporters at this point – some big names among them as well. Last week Thomas Lukaszek called a press conferent to announce his support, Mar also has backing from Iris Evans, Lloyd Snelgrove, Mary Anne Jablonski, George Rogers, Heather Klimchuck, Mel Knight, Rob Renner, Ron Liepert and Ray Prins…his campaign organizers say there is a total of about fifteen as well. Ted Morton is not far behind – there are nine MLAs who have officially endorsed him already. They are: Jonathan Dennis, Doug Elniski, Evan Berger, Moe Amery, Carl Benito, Dave Rodney, Tony Vandermeer, George Groeneveld and David Xiao.
Doug Horner formally kicks off his PC Leadership campaign, flanked by his caucus supporters.
Not So Keen on MLA Support
As for the other three – Allison Redford and Rick Orman are taking different approaches, according to their campaign teams. Redford officially has the endorsement of Art Johnston but her team says she is focused on policy and winning over members, not wooing MLAs. Same goes for Rick Orman who is focused on bringing back disenchanted PC members who may have defected to other parties. He currently has no official MLA endorsements. All of the names above were provided by the candidates’ respective campaign teams – I’m still waiting on hearing back from Doug Griffiths’ team so I can accurately account for his supporters.
What Does it Mean?
There are a couple of issues that come out of MLAs’ deciding who they are going to support. Someone like Horner right now has a lot of Edmonton/North support – looks like some Calgary/Edmonton lines may be drawn. This might come into play in a number of ways; for one, the Wildrose is poised to offer some stiff competition in Calgary. For another, Stelmach garnered some resentment from members for being from the North and voters might want to make the switch back to a “Southern” Premier. And a side note – many of the MLAs standing behind Horner today, stood behind Stelmach 5 years ago … someone actually tweeted me today that Horner was looking like a Stelmach clone. Horner said no way – he’s different – said he himself didn’t even support Stelmach last time around.
There’s also the question about how much caucus support actually means. I spoke with Chaldeans Mensah, a political scientist at Grant MacEwan University, and he pointed to Jim Dinning’s lost during the last race as evidence it’s not that important. Dinning, you might remember, had a lot of caucus support. He said the key is winning new memberships and being seen as a uniting, not polarizing force. But, Mensah also maintains that’s where MLA support could become crucial. These next couple of months will be full of the “bbq circuit” and candidates have to be seen and heard in consituencies throughout the province…an MLA can help coordinate that in his or her constituency…so the more MLAs you have behind you, the more ground a candidate might be able to cover.
Finally – again pointing to the last race – Mensah says because of the presence of a second ballot – a candidate shouldn’t be aiming to be the number one choice – but instead should strategize to land in the top three….after all, you never know who might pull up the middle.
Who do you think is a frontrunner in this PC Leadership contest, and why? I want to hear from you! Send your thoughts to me via email: vassy.kapelos@globalnews.ca, Twitter: www.twitter.com/vassykapelos, or Facebook: www.facebook.com/vassykapelos.
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