After more than a year of campaigning by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it all comes down to Tuesday’s 2016 U.S. presidential election day.
The polls have fluctuated in each candidate’s favour; while some states have remained distinctly Democratic blue or Republican red, others are a tossup.
Here’s a look at where the candidates stand in the race to 270 electoral votes — and a new job in the White House — the day before it’s all over.
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Safe states
A number of states are considered solidly Republican. Trump should be able to nab Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming for a total of 144 electoral votes, according to Associated Press predictions.
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The Democrats can bank on California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state, for a total of 200 total electoral votes.
The Associated Press’ numbers take into consideration preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.
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Battlegrounds
Florida is expected once again to be a major swing state this election. Maine’s 2nd District, Nebraska’s 2nd District, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Utah, are considered tossups. In all, they count for 74 total electoral votes.
Electoral vote predictions
Clinton 322 versus Trump 216 — Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, via the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes.”
Clinton 296 versus Trump 240 — FiveThirtyEight, a site run by Nate Silver, who has been close to perfect in the last two elections, missing just one state in 2008.
As of Monday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight had Clinton at a 68.5 per cent chance of winning, compared with Trump at 31.5 per cent.
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Clinton 203 versus Trump 164 (171 tossups) — RealClearPolitics, a non-partisan polling aggregate.
“Clinton has kept Trump from catching up to her in the polls so she is still the favourite to win — but there is some uncertainty.”
Clinton 323 versus Trump 215 — The Crosstab predicts, via the process: “collect the polls, correct the polls, average the polls, combine the polls, and simulate the election.”
Clinton 270 versus Trump 214 (36 tossups) — Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns. The newsletter’s prediction, illustrated in the map below, is refreshed daily.
Clinton 323 versus Trump 215 — Colley Rankings predicts, using a model developed by Princeton University astrophysicist Richard Gott and fellow analysis expert Wesley Colley. The pair have been pretty much spot-on with their predictions for the past three elections.
Clinton 274 versus Trump 170 (94 tossups) — NBC News released its final projection map Monday, noting Clinton holds “a substantial lead.”
“Clinton has 274 electoral votes in her column — which is unchanged from last week, and which also is more than the 270 needed to win the presidency.”
Polls
CNN’s latest Poll of Polls gives Clinton a four-point lead over Trump, 46 to 42 per cent.
ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll also shows Clinton ahead of Trump, at 47 to 43 per cent.
Bloomberg’s final national poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump, at 44 per cent to Trump’s 41.
The final POLITICO/Morning Consult of the election shows Clinton ahead with a three-point lead over Trump.
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