The Liberals have gained support at the expense of the NDP over the summer, leading to an even closer race than previous polling has suggested, with just four weeks to go until the election.
Only 11 seats separate the three main political parties, according to the latest seat projection by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP), making the 42nd federal election look like one of the closest in in Canadian history.
And one of the most volatile regions is also the country’s most vote-rich: Ontario.
“In Ontario, there clearly has been a weakening of the NDP to the Liberals while the Conservatives are basically the same,” Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University said during an interview Tuesday.
The Conservatives had 33 per cent support in Ontario on June 25 when Kay measured an aggregate of polls from earlier that month. Their support hasn’t budged. The NDP, however, dropped from 34 per cent support to 25 per cent, while the Liberals went from 28 per cent to 36 per cent over those three months.
Likewise, the Liberals are projected to win 20 more seats than three months ago, moving from 86 to 106. The NDP moved from 130 to 117. The Conservatives, in those three months, barely moved, going down slightly from 119 to 116.
“We’ve never seen a three-way race like this in Canadian history,” Kay said. “At the moment, who comes first, second, or third, is going to hang very much on late ridings.”
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The LISPOP projection was created using an aggregated sample of over 7,000 respondents to polls conducted between Sept. 9 and Sept. 20 by Ipsos, Nanos, Ekos, Environics, and Forum Research.
The NDP isn’t dropping everywhere though. Its support in Quebec has solidified and it’s now projected to win 60 of the 78 available seats. The Liberals are projected to win 13, the Conservatives five, and the Bloc Quebecois – once a powerful political force in Canada — could be shut out.
In Ontario, the Liberals are projected to win 52 seats, three more than the Conservatives, and 32 more than the NDP. A good portion of the seats that have changed on the LISPOP map are in Scarborough and downtown Toronto.
One of the ridings setting up to be a close, high-profile race is Fort York-Spadina, a new riding where political heavyweights Adam Vaughan and Olivia Chow are doing battle. Right now, LISPOP lists the riding as leaning NDP.
But growing Liberal support has also allowed them to scrape some swing ridings away from the Conservatives, Kay said.
“The NDP vote bleeding to the Liberals isn’t just hurting the NDP in seats in downtown Toronto, it’s also hurting the Conservatives in swing areas like Mississauga,” Kay said.
How the vote falls across Canada
Regionally not much has changed over the last week, with the exception of some shift in projections in Ontario and British Columbia among the NDP and Liberals.
In Ontario, the Liberals have a slight edge over the Conservatives who are projected to pick up largely rural ridings.
British Columbia too is home to tight races with the NDP projected to pick up 19 seats, the Conservatives 13, and the Liberals nine. The Green Party is also projected to win one seat.
The Liberals have a stranglehold on Atlantic Canada, projected to pick up 22 of the 32 available seats.
The Conservatives are in the lead in the Prairies/Northern region projected to win 15 to the NDP’s nine, and the Liberals seven seats.
In Alberta, the NDP and Liberals are well behind the Conservatives with three seats each. The Tories are projected to win 28.
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