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Unpacking the Politics: Will the budget delay hurt the Conservatives?

Watch: Citizen’s Mark Kennedy talks to Tom Clark about the political repercussions and opportunities of low oil prices.

The government’s decision to delay its 2015 budget is a gamble that could come with a price, says veteran Ottawa reporter Mark Kennedy.

“If their budget in April becomes a laughing stock, it will hurt the country and it will hurt [the Conservatives’] political fortunes,” Kennedy, parliamentary bureau chief for the Ottawa Citizen, said on The West Block with Tom Clark.

“A lot hinges on this budget for them now.”

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Last week, Finance Minister Joe Oliver announced the budget would be delayed, citing ongoing market instability.

In an earlier interview with Tom Clark, senior cabinet minister Jason Kenney said the delay was necessary for those planning the budget to get a better grip on the trajectory of oil, which has been dropping in value at breakneck speeds.

READ MORE: How did oil prices get so low?

Considering the Conservatives have branded themselves as responsible fiscal managers, coupled with the long-promised surplus, there is a lot riding on the 2015 budget, Kennedy said.

“I look back to the fall of 2008, shortly after Stephen Harper won his second victory,” Kennedy recalled. “This is as the economic recession was coming down on our heads and we all knew it. They forecast five years of surplus. We all knew it was a joke, of course, and before long they had to admit that.”

READ MORE: Ottawa’s emergency fund off limits despite shaky economy, expensive promises, Kenney says

That cannot happen again, Kennedy said.

Almost, if not equally, as important is that the Conservatives be able to preserve their reputation as strong fiscal managers.

“This is what got [Harper] elected in 2011; he was going to be a strong fiscal manager and the others weren’t,” Kennedy said. “Well now we’re asking the question, ‘how did we get here?'” Kennedy said.
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