Canada’s unemployment rate rose for a third-straight month in July as the economy shed 6,400 jobs, a softening which economists say could impact the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision.
Statistics Canada said on Friday that in July, the unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points 5.5 per cent. July marks the first time the unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The soft July employment report is just the latest arrow in the quiver of signs that the economy is losing momentum,” Doug Porter, chief economist and managing director of economics at BMO, said in a note Friday.
According to Statistics Canada, employment fell among core-aged men aged 25 to 54 years old by 0.4 per cent, and increased among male youth aged 15 to 24 by 0.9 per cent.
There was little variation in employment among young and core-aged women, and among men and women aged 55 and older.
Statistics Canada said job losses were led by the construction industry, while the greatest job gains were made in health care and social assistance.
Employment increased in Alberta, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island while it declined in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. All other provinces posted little change in July, Statistics Canada said.
More than half of the unemployed (53.6 per cent) had been out of the labour force immediately before becoming unemployed in July, while 38.7 per cent had left or lost a job.
On a year-over-year basis, average hourly wages rose five per cent in July, following increases of 4.2 per cent in June and 5.1 per cent in May.
Rising unemployment comes as high interest rates weigh on the economy, making borrowing more expensive for both businesses and consumers.
What the jobs data could mean for the Bank of Canada
The softening in the labour market also has implications for the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision on Sept. 6, economists say.
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However, the central bank will have additional data to consider as well, including the July inflation report and June GDP figures, which are due in the coming weeks.
The central bank hiked its benchmark rate to five per cent on July 12 in another effort to cool the Canadian economy and bring inflation to its two per cent target. Inflation cooled to 2.8 per cent in June, down from 3.4 per cent in May.
The employment figures, combined with the latest inflation report, shows the case is strong for the Bank of Canada (BoC) not to raise its policy interest rate further, Porter said.
“Looking beyond the next rate decision, we suspect that the bank may be done raising rates, although still-firm wage and core price growth means that rates are likely to stay high for long,” Porter added.
Unlike Porter, James Orlando, director and senior economist with TD Bank, said in a note the central bank “isn’t likely to change its hawkish tone” yet.
“While odds of another rate hike dropped following this report, the BoC will need to see more of the same before it can feel like its job is done,” he said Friday.
“Today’s report is in line with our expectation for a rising unemployment rate and a further slowing in economic momentum through the rest of this year.”
Marc Desormeaux, principal economist with Desjardins, said in a note he expects the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold at its next meeting on Sept. 6.
“Economic activity appears to be moderating amid sharply higher borrowing costs, and we maintain that the full effects of prior increases have yet to be felt by Canadian consumers and businesses,” Desormeaux said.
“However, the pickup in wage gains and continued boost from population growth suggest that the Bank of Canada will remain attuned to the risk that core persistent inflation stays sticky for a while. That said, with officials expressing the desire to avoid overtightening, we believe that the bar for further hikes is high in light of the recent signs of weakening in growth, employment, and inflation.”
Carrie Freestone, an economist with RBC Economics, said in a note that the July jobs report is a “point in favour” for the central bank.
“Today’s jobs report is a point in favour of keeping the overnight rate at five per cent, but the BoC will closely monitor additional indicators – particularly upcoming inflation and consumer spending reports – to determine whether an additional hike is needed,” Freestone said Friday.
Meanwhile down south, U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs last month. That led America’s unemployment rate to dip to 3.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent in June in a sign that the U.S. job market remains resilient.
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