The recent Pentagon leaks that have rocked the United States and its allies could help Russia patch up its vulnerabilities in the Ukraine war, a former U.S. NATO envoy says.
An investigation is ongoing into the disclosure of the highly classified military documents about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other top national security issues.
The contents leaked – reportedly including briefing slides mapping out Ukrainian military positions, international aid and potential circumstances under which Russia might use nuclear weapons – have not revealed anything new, said Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO.
But Russia might benefit by zeroing in on where it is falling short, according to Volker.
“It’s not so much that this will necessarily expose a source, but what it can do is clue the Russians and others in to thinking what their vulnerabilities are and how do they do a better job at closing them, ” he told Mercedes Stephenson on The West Block Sunday.
U.S. authorities have arrested Jack Teixeira, a Massachusetts Air National Guard member, who appeared in a federal court in Boston Friday to face charges in connection with the leak.
The motive for the disclosures remains unclear. The Justice Department has said its investigation is continuing.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon said it would conduct its own review of access to sensitive intelligence to prevent a similar leak in the future.
Volker said the breach has exposed what he called an “analysis gap” in U.S. intelligence, with Washington making “wrong” predictions.
“We do a great job of connecting intelligence, but when you look at the quality of the analysis, it’s often coming up short.”
He pointed to previous U.S. analyses that “Russia would roll over Ukraine” in a matter of days and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would flee the country after Moscow launched its invasion last year.
“This was wildly wrong even though we had the data right that Russia would invade, we didn’t have the context right,” Volker said.
“That’s something that I think people ought to be concerned about because it’s playing out in these documents again.”
The Ukrainian military is looking to beef up its ability to intercept missiles as it prepares for an expected spring counter-offensive to retake Russian-occupied areas of the country.
More than a year of fighting has depleted weapons supplies on both sides.
Volker said there are some “inherent biases” when it comes to interpreting collected U.S. intel, and that the leaks highlight some of the questions officials will need to examine.
“It may also have to do with the experience, the level of experience of the people who are doing the analysis in the field,” he added.
“These are things that I think intelligence leaders ought to be asking themselves: how do we make sure that our people doing the intelligence analysis are as savvy and experienced as we can get?”
— with files from the Associated Press
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