TORONTO – Toronto Transit Commission Chair Karen Stintz would beat Rob Ford if they were in a head-to-head race for the mayor’s chair, according to a new poll by Forum Research.
Despite Ford’s steady approval ratings, Stintz stands to defeat her fellow rival by capturing 38 per cent of the votes compared to 33 per cent for the current mayor and 8 per cent for declared candidate David Soknacki. The telephone poll was conducted on Nov. 4, five days after Police Chief Bill Blair acknowledged investigators have a video of the mayor purportedly smoking what looked like crack cocaine.
READ MORE: Mayor Rob Ford admits to smoking crack cocaine
Stintz’s numbers have skyrocketed since the last poll on Oct.30 by Forum Research taken just before the video scandal erupted. In that survey – Ford had 40 per cent support compared to 31 per cent for the TTC chair.
“We have seen Karen Stintz move from a marginal contender to the main event, and if there are no other contenders, she trumps even the mayor,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Stintz openly declared her intention to run for mayor last week. Potential candidates can officially registered on Jan. 2, 2014.
However, the numbers change dramatically if NDP MP Olivia Chow throws her hat into the ring.
In a four way race, Chow would capture 39 per cent compared to Ford’s 29 per cent.
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Stintz would drop to third with 16 per cent support and Soknacki at 6 per cent.
The dynamics would change in a five way race that included radio host John Tory.
Chow would have 32 per cent support while Ford drops 3 points to 26 per cent. Tory would garner 25 per cent of the vote with Stintz ending up in fourth place with 22 per cent.
In a scenario where Chow does not run, Ford (29 per cent) and Tory (31 per cent) are in a statistical tie while Stintz would take less than a quarter of the vote with 22 per cent.
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,393 randomly selected Torontonians 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on Nov. 4, 2013. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/‐ 3%, 19 times out of 20.
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