Premier Danielle Smith will have a seat in the legislature for the first time since 2015, after winning the Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection on Tuesday.
“I want to assure Albertans, that I will be leading a government that is committed to serving all Albertans, no matter where in Alberta that you live,” Smith said in her victory speech.
She shared a message of unity, but Brooks-Medicine Hat voters appear divided along urban and rural lines.
“There are certain parts of this riding where Danielle Smith is an absolute rock star,” said pollster and political commentator Janet Brown.
“There are other parts of this riding where people are going to grudgingly accept her as their new MLA.”
Smith took the riding with an unofficial total of 54.5 per cent of the votes. (Elections Alberta said official results will be announced the morning of Nov. 18.)
NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk came in second place, with 26.7 per cent of the vote, and Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita came in third with 16.5 per cent.
But election day ballots cast within the city of Medicine Hat polls favoured Dirk, who received 1,647 votes to Smith’s 1,551.
However, low voter turnout persisted in the city. Only 26.1 per cent of Medicine Hat’s eligible voters cast a ballot — more than ten per cent below the riding’s total turnout.
“Politics is about who shows up and when I do my public opinion polls, I see that Danielle Smith is in trouble,” Brown said.
“But her voters are very enthusiastic and if they’re more likely to come out and vote, then she’s going to outperform what the polls are saying.”
Brown believes the UCP will need to focus on issues urban residents prioritize if the party wants to gain ground in the big municipalities.
“People in the city are far more concerned about health care, inflation, crime,” Brown said.
“We are hearing from our candidates, from folks on the doors and even from some polling is that we are making considerable progress in rural Alberta,” NDP leader Rachel Notley said Wednesday.
What Notley’s NDP has to do is get more of its supporters to actually vote, according to Brown.
“They may be winning in the polls right now, but they’ve got to not just win in the polls — they’ve got to have enthusiasm in their voter base.”
The next provincial election is scheduled for May 29, 2023.