The face of Alberta will change dramatically over the next few decades, with a new provincial study projecting a greying, more multicultural population that flocks to the Calgary-Edmonton corridor.
Calgary and area will continue to be a magnet in the coming decades as the province’s population grows to more than six million by 2050, according to provincial projections, with future growth driven by international migration.
The Alberta Population Projections report released by the provincial government, which forecasts trends over the next four decades, predicts the Calgary, Red Deer and Edmonton regions will be home to about 77 per cent of Wild Rose Country’s population in 2050.
The Calgary region, which extends to Olds in the north and High River in the south, will be home to about 41 per cent of the population by 2050, or 2.5 million people, according to a medium-growth scenario, with the Edmonton area at 1.8 million.
While the major cities will continue to grow, they’ll also continue to grey and diversify.
“The pace of aging is likely to accelerate after 2011, when the first wave of baby boomers reaches the age of 65,” says the study from Alberta Finance.
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“Migration is likely to be the solution to slow down the aging process and meet the labour market demand,” the report adds. “Future population growth would be mainly driven by migration, particularly by international migration.”
The median age of Albertans is projected to increase from 36 in 2009 to as much as 45 by 2050. The number of people aged 65 and older could reach more than a quarter of the population by that time, up from about 10 per cent last year.
In the same vein, the percentage of dependents in Alberta (non-workers, including children up to age 14 and seniors aged 65 and older) will swell.
Currently, there are about 40 children and seniors per 100 working age people, but that number will likely rise to more than 65 by 2050, the report forecasts.
An aging and more multicultural population is also expected to produce additional cost pressures on the provincial government.
Health care — which already accounts for nearly 40 per cent of the government’s $38.7-billion budget — could chew away more public dollars, with increased demand for drugs, health facilities and medical professionals.
Gary Pool, president of the Alberta Council on Aging, said the provincial government must plan accordingly to ensure there’s enough long-term care homes and other seniors accommodation outside of hospitals.
Seniors, he said, can be a valuable asset to a provincial economy that’s predicting long-term labour shortages. Governments should considering raising the retirement age because seniors are living longer and are able to work beyond age 65, he argued.
“The government needs to look at how to make best use of potential workforce personnel,” Pool said.
Yet, filling the labour void and spurring the province’s productivity will be new Albertans.
The share of population growth from newcomers to the province is expected to soar from about 50 per cent in 2010 to between 70 per cent and nearly 90 per cent by 2050, led by international migrants.
“That trend has already started,” noted Fariborz Birjandian, executive director of the Calgary Catholic Immigration Society. “Alberta and Calgary are being identified as a desirable place for international migrants.”
Alberta’s competitiveness demands it look overseas to fill jobs, Birjandian said, urging rural communities to follow the leads of the major cities and “start looking at how they can be more welcoming to newcomers.”
While attracting immigrants will also require additional settlement services and language training, he said newcomers must be considered an investment, rather than a cost.
The Calgary and Edmonton regions are expected to attract eight out of 10 new migrants to Alberta in 2050.
jfekete@theherald.canwest.com
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