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Conservative leadership race: A look at the candidates as contest ends tonight

Click to play video: 'Update on Conservative leadership race'
Update on Conservative leadership race
With the Conservative leadership election just days away, Darrell Bricker from Ipsos Canada joins Antony Robart with some exclusive new data on how likely victor Pierre Poilievre is being perceived by both Conservative voters and the general voting public – Sep 6, 2022

Conservative party faithful are gathered in downtown Ottawa, where by the end of the evening they will meet their new leader.

More than 1,000 people were expected to attend the announcement of the party’s leadership election results, which is happening under a more sombre atmosphere because of the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Read more: Conservative leadership race: Over half of members have voted a week before deadline

That means whichever of the five candidates vying to replace former leader Erin O’Toole won’t be greeted by a blast of confetti as was planned initially. Instrumental Christian hymns also played in the hall before the event began and the event opened with a moment of silence of for the Queen.

The mood among campaign staff, party brass and other members who buzzed about the convention centre waiting for the program to begin was one of, “finally.”

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Not only has race lasted for seven months, but it’s the party’s third in the past six years.

It’s hoping to change that with its next leader, whom Conservatives are desperate to see return the party to government after being bested by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s Liberals for the past three elections.

Expectations are high for veteran Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre, who ran a populist campaign around the theme of “freedom” in his bid to score the top prize.

Supporters carried signs emblazoned with his campaign pitch of ‘Pierre Poilievre for prime minister.’ He and his wife, Anaida, arrived slightly late to the event, and sat with their family.

The question now is whether he can pull off a rare first-ballot win.

Click to play video: 'Pierre Poilievre favoured within Conservative party, but not among Canadians, new poll says'
Pierre Poilievre favoured within Conservative party, but not among Canadians, new poll says

“I think he can,” said Garry Keller, a former Conservative staffer whose roles included working as chief of staff to Rona Ambrose, who served as the party’s interim leader after former prime minister Stephen Harper stepped down.

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Poilievre would be the first to secure victory on the first ballot since Harper, who won the Conservative Party of Canada’s first leadership race in 2004.

Such a win would be good for party unity because it signals a clear direction, Keller said. “It’s all united behind one person.”

The party is using a points system to count up the more than 400,000 votes that were cast before Tuesday’s ballot deadline.

Candidates are assigned points based on what share of the vote they receive in each of Canada’s 338 electoral ridings. Whoever scores more than 50 per cent of the points wins.

It also uses a ranked ballot, meaning members mark their preferred choice for leader from first to last.

If there’s no clear winner the first time ballots are counted, the candidate who receives the least support is eliminated, and the votes they received from supporters who picked them first transfer to the candidates those members picked second.

In 2017’s crowded race, Andrew Scheer only eked out a victory against presumed front-runner Maxime Bernier on the 13th ballot.

In 2020, it took three rounds of counting for O’Toole to cross the winning threshold.On Saturday, the party paid a tribute to the former leader, who was voted out by his caucus in early February, triggering the current race.

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O’Toole himself appeared by video to deliver thanks and emphasized to the crowd the importance of unity in the party. He said he was honoured to lead, but for “too short” of a time.

Candice Bergen, the longtime Manitoba MP who led the party in the interim after O’Toole’s ouster also addressed the audience. In her final speech, Bergen says she wants to be remembered as helping promote unity.

She also imparted some advice to the new leader: “Respect, listen to and trust our caucus.”

Poilievre is facing off against four other candidates, and throughout the race has been attracting crowds by the thousands with his stances against inflation, COVID-19 vaccine mandates and all things Trudeau.

He used that momentum to sell a whopping 300,000 memberships, his campaign said, and leveraged a social media following he spent years amassing to reach supporters and collect data.

Out of the party’s 118 other members of Parliament, 62 are backing him.

In recent weeks, Poilievre’s campaign has turned its focus to aggressively making sure that those who signed up to vote for him actually cast their ballots _ part of an overall ethos of not taking anything for granted.

If they ever needed lessons on the importance of that, they needed only look at the fortunes of Bernier in 2017 and Peter MacKay in 2020, who were presumed front-runners when they ran for leader but lost in the end.

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One of the key battlegrounds in this year’s contest is Quebec, where Poilievre’s main competition is the province’s former premier, Jean Charest.

Charest spent the contest reintroducing himself to a new generation of Conservatives after being out of federal politics for more than 20 years and leaving provincial office in 2012.

Read more: Pierre Poilievre: 5 questions Tory leadership candidate has yet to answer

Charest’s campaign has said it believes he has enough support in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada to secure the points he needs to win, a victory the campaign admits would be narrow.

Another factor the Charest campaign is counting on is support from the party members brought in by another centrist candidate, Patrick Brown. The mayor of Brampton, Ont., was disqualified from the race in July over an allegation that he may have contravened federal election law, which he has denied.

Brown had focused on courting support in the country’s immigrant communities, a strategy Charest has picked up since the ouster.

With Brown’s name still on the ballot, any voters who ranked him first will see their votes counted toward their second-choice picks.

Keller said he’s also curious to see how Leslyn Lewis performs. The MP surprised many with her strong showing when she entered the 2020 contest as a relative unknown, then ended up placing third behind O’Toole and winning Saskatchewan.

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Like in the last race, she’s benefiting from support in the party’s well-mobilized social Conservative wing, in part because of her opposition to abortion.

But Keller said with fewer candidates in the contest, she and Poilievre are fishing from the same pond. They have overlapping appeal, for different reasons.

“There’s a group of people who might say, ‘I really like Leslyn Lewis,”’ he said. “’I like what she stands for. But I really love Pierre Poilievre. So she’s gonna be my second choice, but Pierre’s my first choice.”’

Rural Ontario MP Scott Aitchison and former Ontario legislator Roman Baber are the race’s two newest faces.

Click to play video: 'Daniel Westlake breaks down the Conservative leadership race'
Daniel Westlake breaks down the Conservative leadership race

Aitchison, a former small-town mayor who was first elected as an MP in 2019, campaigned on the theme of restoring decency in politics and called out conspiracy theories that have become common in some Conservative circles, such as those around the World Economic Forum and vaccinations against COVID-19.

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Baber was best known before the leadership race for getting kicked out of Ontario Premier Doug Ford‘s caucus after he spoke out against COVID-19 lockdowns in January 2021 – a move he spent the campaign pointing to as evidence that he follows his convictions.

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