The Progressive Conservatives have “pulled away” from the rest of the pack as the Ontario provincial election is set to get underway, a new Ipsos poll has found.
The survey, conducted exclusively for Global News, suggests that if the provincial election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party under Leader Doug Ford would garner 39 per cent of the decided popular vote.
This marks a four-point increase since last month, but is two points shy of their share of the vote in 2018.
Meanwhile, the poll suggests the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario New Democrats (NDP) would split the progressive vote.
The survey found the Ontario Liberals — under Leader Steven Del Duca — would receive 26 per cent of the vote, while the NDP, under Leader Andrea Horwath, would collect 25 per cent of the vote.
The poll found that five per cent of voters said they would cast their ballot for their local Green Party candidate, while six per cent said they would vote for another party.
Meanwhile, another five per cent of respondents said they would not vote, while 13 per cent said they are still undecided.
Votes by region
The survey found that in the 905, the PCs (47 per cent) have a 21-point lead over the Liberals (26 per cent.) The NDP has garnered 20 per cent of the vote, while three per cent of voters said they would cast their ballots for the Green Party.
However, in the 416 — or Toronto proper — the poll found the Liberals are leading at 36 per cent, while the PCs are sitting at 32 per cent of the vote. Twenty-six per cent of respondents said they would vote for the NDP while two per cent said they would vote for the Green Party. Five per cent of voters said they would cast their ballot for another party.
Other areas in the province break down as follows:
Southwest Ontario
- PC: 38 per cent
- NDP: 25 per cent
- Liberals: 21 per cent
- Green Party: six per cent
- Other: 10 per cent
Central Ontario
- PC: 39 per cent
- NDP: 23 per cent
- Liberals: 18 per cent
- Greens: 13 per cent
- Other: 7 per cent
Eastern Ontario
- PC: 37 per cent
- NDP: 30 per cent
- Liberals: 25 per cent
- Green Party: three per cent
- Other: four per cent
Northern Ontario
- NDP: 37 per cent
- PC: 34 per cent
- Liberals: 15 per cent
- Greens: eight per cent
- Other: five per cent
Votes by gender
The poll also found “significant differences” in voter intentions based on respondent’s gender and age.
According to the data, 33 per cent of women said they would vote for the PCs, while 30 per cent said they would cast their ballot for the NDP. Twenty-eight per cent said they would vote for the Liberals, while only four per cent said they would vote for the Green Party. Seven per cent said they would cast their ballot for another party.
In comparison, the poll found men are more “solidly in the PC camp,” with 46 per cent saying they would cast their vote for the party. Twenty-four per cent of men said they would vote for the Liberals, while 20 per cent said they would cast their ballot for the NDP. Five per cent said they would vote for the Green Party, while the same proportion said they would vote for another party.
Votes by age
The data also showed how voter intentions varied among age groups. Here’s how the decided vote would be split by age, if the provincial election were held tomorrow.
Voters aged 55+
- PC: 46 per cent
- NDP: 19 per cent
- Liberals: 26 per cent
- Green Party: two per cent
- Other: six per cent
Voters aged 35 to 54
- PC: 39 per cent
- NDP: 26 per cent
- Liberals: 23 per cent
- Green Party: five per cent
- Other: seven per cent
Voters aged 18 to 34
- PC: 28 per cent
- NDP: 34 per cent
- Liberals: 28 per cent
- Green Party: seven per cent
- Other: three per cent
The ‘incumbency effect’
The poll also found that support for the Ford government remains strong. The data shows that 51 per cent of the survey’s respondents approve of the performance of the Progressive Conservative government under Premier Ford. Thirty-eight per cent said they “somewhat” approve, while 12 per cent said they “strongly” approve of the government’s performance.
What’s more, 40 per cent of those surveyed said the Ford government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.
However, 57 per cent said they think it’s time for another party to take over, while three per cent said they don’t know or didn’t answer.
Sean Simpson vice-president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said there has been a “strong incumbency effect for governments across Canada.”
“We saw that when Justin Trudeau federally was reelected — albeit with another minority government — because those over the age of 55 were largely in support of the pandemic measures and restrictions that the federal government had put in place,” he told Global News.
Simpson said something “very similar” appears to be happening in Ontario, adding that there is a “lot of strong support from older residents of the province for the incumbent government.”
“At the start of a campaign we like to determine and understand whether or not it’s a ‘change election’ or not, meaning that just general inertia is going to help the opposition parties,” he said.
“It seems as though this Ontario election is not a ‘change election,’ and therefore, the trends and the tides will generally favour the incumbent government in Premier Doug Ford.”
Simpson said the first part of the election campaign is “likely going to be a primary for the progressive votes.”
He said in order to have “any chance of defeating Mr. Ford and the Progressive Conservatives,” the Liberals or the NDP will need to “prove themselves as the main challenger.”
“Right now the progressive vote is evenly split between those two parties, so voters need to figure out who has the best shot of defeating the premier on June 2, and therefore is worthy of their support,” he said.
For now, Simpson said this is the “best case scenario” for the PCs.
“A double-digit lead and very mixed support between the NDP and Liberals causing a lot of tight races to likely go towards the Tory camp,” he said.
Voter uncertainty
The poll also found that only 44 per cent of voters said they are absolutely certain when it comes to their decision on how to vote on election day, meaning the remaining voters who have declared support for a political party are not “locked-in.”
The survey found that 38 per cent of parents, 40 per cent of women, 38 per cent of those between 35 and 54-years-old and 40 per cent of those between 18 and 35-years-old were the least likely to be certain about their choice.
Only 41 per cent of Liberal voters and 43 per cent of NDP voters said they are absolutely certain of their choice, while 49 per cent of PC voters said they are certain about how to cast their ballots.
Simpson said “locked-in voters” are among the “big advantages” the Progressive Conservatives have right now, adding that it is likely to be a “fairly volatile election.”
“If not for the incumbent Progressive Conservative support, definitely for the vote figures for the NDP and Liberals, as those progressive voters try to figure out who’s best placed to defeat the incumbent government,” he said.
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos poll was conducted between April 29 and May 1, 2022 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=1501 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online (1001) and by telephone (500). Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population according to census information. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would be had all Ontarians been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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