The scientific director of the panel advising Ontario on COVID-19 says cases in the province might rise a bit after the holiday weekend, but it won’t fundamentally change the trajectory of the sixth wave.
Dr. Peter Juni says there may be “a little bit of a bump” in cases following holidays such as Easter, Passover and Ramadan, which is ongoing.
He says wastewater data shows a possible peak, the number of health-care workers testing positive for COVID-19 has plateaued, and test positivity has also plateaued.
Juni says the sixth wave will likely either stay on a plateau or start decreasing because of a high level of immunity from vaccines and recent infections as well as warmer weather allowing for more outdoor activities, which have a lower risk of transmission.
He says next week’s data will reflect the impacts of gatherings over the long weekend.
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Ontario’s case and contact management system is experiencing issues, but there were 1,073 new COVID-19 cases logged Wednesday.
With PCR testing eligibility restricted, Juni says multiplying the daily case count right now by 20 would give an accurate picture.
He had previously suggested a multiplier of 10, but he says while a wave is at a possible peak, a multiplier of 20 is more accurate.
Ontario reported 1,662 people in hospital Wednesday with COVID-19, up nearly 12 per cent from the previous day.
The province also reported 203 COVID-19 patients in intensive care, a slight decrease from 206 on Tuesday.
The province recorded 28 new deaths from the virus. The test positivity rate was 16.8.