Food affordability a challenge in New Brunswick amid economic uncertainty

At the checkout in New Brunswick, things may feel more expensive.

With rising costs on inputs for farmers, supply for fertilizer hanging in limbo, gasoline prices among the highest it has ever been, and inflation reaching its highest peak in 31 years, consumers are going to feel the pinch.

Economist Herb Emery, who is a professor at the University of New Brunswick in Fredericton,  said things will depend on the consumer.

“It’s a confusing market to sort out,” he said. “The general tendency is if nothing else changes, the price of food should be going up a lot.”

He said the competitiveness has always existed in the small and large suppliers. At the beginning of the pandemic, the big question was about getting things in because a large portion of our supply gets in through transport.

“I really think the logistics of the industry will attenuate some of the price increases,” he said. “Consumers are really fickle in terms of what they’ll consume. So, the real impact starts to be on low-income households that are already at lower-quality foods. There is nowhere for them to go.”

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Emery believes food insecurity is just one piece of the bigger puzzle.

“We tend to use food insecurity, which is the ability (or) having adequate income to buy food, and when you look at it, the price of food is one contributor to food insecurity but a much bigger one is just energy cost, the cost of your housing and whether or not your income goes far enough,” Emery said.

He said things will iron out but the process won’t be painless.

“I think our real risk that this inflation is going to cause a response from the central bank to raise interest rates to reduce demand which they do by reducing our incomes,” he said. “If they do that, we’re actually going to see price inflation go away but it doesn’t mean we’re happier.”

Dalhousie professor and food security expert Sylvain Charlebois believes this problem will be sustained.

“We do produce a lot of grains, which is saving us, and that’s why we’re somewhat isolated from what’s going on elsewhere around the world from a food access perspective,” he said in an interview with Global News.

“From a food affordability perspective, we can’t provide any immunities to anyone because we’re looking at world markets.”

He said there are rumours of people potentially hoarding food but that would only make the  situation worse.

“That’s the worst thing you want to do because you’re going to put even more pressure on the food system and prices could go even higher,” he said.

But he has some advice for those looking to make the most of their money and food.

“There aren’t many promotions. There aren’t many sales at the grocery store to help consumers save. The best way to save right now is on the back end of food shopping, which is really at home, reducing food waste,” Charlebois said.

“So, if you buy something to eat, make sure you eat it. That’s the best way to save money right now.”

1:43 N.B. farmers brace for high fertilizer costs