International food and feed prices could rise by between eight and 20 per cent as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, triggering a jump in global malnourishment, the UN food agency said on Friday.
In a preliminary assessment of Russia‘s invasion of its neighbor, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said it was not clear if Ukraine would be able to harvest crops during a protracted conflict, while uncertainty also surrounded Russian food exports.
FAO said Russia was the world’s largest exporter of wheat, while Ukraine was the fifth largest. Together, they provide 19 per cent of the world’s barley supply, 14 per cent of wheat, and four per cent of maize, making up more than one-third of global cereal exports.
Russia is also a world leader in fertilizer exports.
“The likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally,” FAO’s Director General Qu Dongyu said in a statement.
The body’s food price index hit a record high in February, and looks certain to climb further still in the months ahead as the consequences of the conflict reverberate around the world.
Between 20 per cent and 30 per cent of fields used to grow winter cereals, maize and sunflower in Ukraine will not be planted or will remain unharvested during the 2022/23 season, FAO said, adding Russian exports might be disrupted by international sanctions.
FAO said 50 countries, including many of the least developed nations, depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30 per cent or more of their wheat supplies, leaving them especially vulnerable.
“The global number of undernourished people could increase by eight to 13 million people in 2022/23,” FAO said, adding that the most pronounced rises would be seen in the Asia-Pacific region followed by sub-Saharan Africa.
On Friday, G7 agriculture ministers met to discuss the potential impact of the Ukraine war on global food security, and said in a joint statement they remain “determined to do what is necessary to prevent and respond to a food crisis.”
“We commit to cooperating closely and taking concrete actions to safeguard global food security and nutrition, especially supporting food security for the people of Ukraine,” they said.
“We call on all countries to keep their food and agricultural markets open and to guard against any unjustified restrictive measures on their exports. Any further increase in food price levels and volatility in international markets could threaten food security and nutrition at a global scale, especially among the most vulnerable living in environments of low food security.”
The ministers went on to say they won’t tolerate any artificially inflated prices that could diminish the availability of food and agricultural products.
“We will also fight against any speculative behaviour that endangers food security or access to food for vulnerable countries or populations,” they said.
“Therefore, we are closely monitoring markets affecting the food system, including futures markets, to ensure full transparency.”
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