As the province mulls over whether or not schools should reopen in June amid a downward trend in COVID-19 cases, the director of Ontario’s Science Table says any increases in indoor gathering limits should really start with classrooms.
“When we start now to get to talk about indoors, the first thing to come is really schools,” Dr. Peter Juni told Global News.
“We should wait with everything else. We can open more outdoor sports but everything which is indoor should basically wait. We first need to get essential work for kids going and that’s schools.”
Last week Premier Doug Ford said he was standing behind a decision to keep schools shuttered and seek guidance from others as to whether or not they should reopen amid the third wave of the pandemic.
“That could equal to thousands of cases. Folks, do you want to go backwards again? … I want to make sure looking forward, we are able to get the kids into camp. I want to look forward and make sure we have a great September for kids to go back into school and this could affect our opening as well,” Ford said at a press conference on Friday.
The science table gave its blessing on the weekend, saying some regions could reopen for a period of three weeks based on the advice of local medical officers of health and continued adherence to public health measures.
Juni says “signals of harm” that have been observed in teens and children by a number of local health-care providers in recent months could potentially be only the “tip of the iceberg.”
Physicians at McMaster Children’s Hospital called for the return last week, revealing significant increases in suicide attempts and eating disorders in youth amid the pandemic.
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The premier said his concern was with modelling numbers from the science table that pointed to a six to 11 per cent increase in coronavirus cases if schools reopened on June 2, after the current stay-at-home order expires.
Juni concurred that the data does suggest the increases of roughly 40 cases per day for about four to six weeks but insists it’s “very little” and would be manageable by most health-care regions.
“That’s very few ICU admissions that would be associated with it perhaps over the entire period of 60 days,” Juni said.
“Something like 40 ICU admissions, meaning less than one ICU admission per day over this period.”
However, the director says safety protocols would still have to parallel those used in the previous return last September using cohorts to keep classes together and not mixing with others.
“Masking is also important, go out as much as you can, and obviously the moment there’s a possibility of a case, look at that very rapidly, very carefully, and have the possibility to immediately close down the class,” said Juni.
As of Monday, Just over 24 per cent of the city’s active cases are made up of those aged 19 and under.
Michelle Baird, director of epidemiology, wellness and communicable disease control for Hamilton public health, says the city’s stance on schools remains the same since the pandemic began that they “should be the first to open and last to close” with respect to mental and emotional well-being.
“Ultimately, this is a provincial decision to be made,” Baird said.
“Will we work continuously, collaboratively with our school board partners to ensure that health and safety measures are in place, including daily screening for symptoms, that kind of thing, and will continue, of course, case and contact tracing in a timely way within those environments.”
Hamilton reports 53 new COVID-19 cases, 2 deaths
Hamilton reported 53 new COVID-19 cases on Monday and two more virus-related deaths in people over the age of 60.
Public health recorded 28 virus-related deaths in the month of May, down 16 from the 44 the city reported in April
Over the weekend, three more deceased were added to the pandemic total of 388 – a person in their 60s and another in their 40s on Sunday and a person in their 60s on Saturday.
Most of the city’s COVID-19-related deaths were people over 60 – 376 as of May 31.
No new outbreaks were reported on Monday, nor were any closed.
The city has 26 active surges involving 176 people as of Monday.
Over the weekend, 11 outbreaks were declared over, including one at the Village Apartments on Queen Street North, which was the largest of the closures with 74 cases reported over 20 days.
Six workplace outbreaks were also declared over on the weekend, leaving eight still active as of May 31 involving 65 cases.
There are 544 active cases in Hamilton as of Monday, with the city’s seven-day moving average of cases dropping to 61 as of Saturday – the last date it was recorded by public health.
The city’s reproductive number — the average number of people an infected person is passing COVID-19 on to — remained at 0.68 over the weekend.
The percentage of Hamilton tests returning from Ontario labs as positive for COVID-19 is 8.3 per cent, above the province’s last reported daily number, 4.3 per cent, on May 31.
As of Monday, Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) facilities have 47 total COVID-19 patients, with 22 occupying ICU beds.
St. Joe’s reported 24 patients, 18 of them in an ICU.
The ICU occupancy rate at St. Joe’s is now at 111 per cent as of May 31, while HHS facilities are at 112 per cent.
– With files from Lisa Polewski
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