As the number of COVID-19 cases linked to variants of concern continues to rise in B.C., one expert warns that more restrictions may be needed to stop the variant spread.
Sally Otto, a University of British Columbia professor who has done COVID-19 modelling, said cases involving variants of concern, such as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the U.K., have doubled every week over the last month and a half.
Otto described the province’s vaccination rollout and the rise in COVID-19 variants as a horse race.
“The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,” she said.
Vaccination efforts have the potential to overtake the spread of variants by summertime, she said, but there is a risk of a sharp rise in cases in the short term.
“We’re not talking about the summer for this spike,” she said. “We’re talking in the next two, three weeks for this to happen.”
She described provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry’s recent decision to allow for some outdoor gathering as “reasonable,” given the lack of transmission outdoors.
“But I think what we’re going to have to see in a few weeks is more restrictions where they matter most and those are inside,” she added.
Alberta’s top doctor recently noted that that province has seen cases spread outdoors when people are not distanced or masked.
Otto said she has not had a close look at the Alberta data, but said it makes sense for people to wear masks and maintain social distance while gathering outdoors.
While there is hope on the horizon, Otto said British Columbians may once again be asked to “bend the curve” of COVID-19 transmission until mass vaccinations start to have an impact.
“It’s a harder curve to bend down…because it spreads at a 50- to 100-per-cent faster rate,” she said of variants.
“You’re riding a steeper curve. You’ve got to be a better surfer to ride that one.”
– With files from The Canadian Press
Comments