New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs says he’s still considering whether or not to call a snap election.
Speculation has been rampant since Higgs raised the possibility earlier this month, but the premier says his desire is to avoid sending the province to the polls.
“I’m certainly not urging or hankering for an election. The process is not one that I particularly look forward to,” Higgs told reporters on Tuesday.
“But it’s still a consideration.”
That consideration centres around two by-elections that must happen no later than October 15. Those two, in Shediac Bay-Dieppe and St. Croix, were originally scheduled for June but were postponed due to the pandemic. A third possible by-election would be in Sussex, with long time MLA Bruce Northrup saying he plans to retire.
“If we are in a position where government could fall because of three by-elections, I have to consider whether that would be representative of the will of the people, or just poor timing,” Higgs said earlier this month.
“It’s not like I want an election, but should just three ridings make the decision on whether governments change, or should all the people in the province to make that decision? That has to be part of the analysis.”
As it currently stands, the governing PCs would need to pick up two of the three seats up for grabs to maintain their voting plurality in the Legislature.
Liberal leader Kevin Vickers has said repeatedly that he will not bring down the government this year, but should the numbers break his way the Liberals could make it extremely difficult for the government to pass legislation without substantial unfriendly modifications.
Should the Liberals, with the help of another party, decide to force a vote of non-confidence the Lieutenant Governor would be forced to decide if Vickers should get a shot to command the confidence of the house, or dissolve the Legislature and trigger a general election.
It’s possible that Higgs will look to avoid that situation and opt for a pre-emptive general election. In more normal circumstances the chances of that happening would likely be even higher.
“In normal times two years would be a pretty average length for a minority government to survive. If we didn’t have a global pandemic the chances would be very high that we would have an election,” said JP Lewis, an associate professor at UNB Saint John.
“The government is up in the polls, there’s a cluster of by-elections that could affect the balance of power … in any other circumstance having an election would make sense in terms of historical patterns.”
Further fueling election speculation are five nomination meetings scheduled by the Progressive Conservatives in the coming weeks. The nominations include the premier’s riding, along with cabinet ministers Dominic Cardy and Ted Flemming.
“Having these nomination meetings could easily be a combination of that they are planning and considering a snap election but just realizing that they could fall and they want to have everything set if they do need to go to full campaign,” Lewis said.
The Liberals have already nominated three candidates: speaker Daniel Guitard, Moncton East MLA Monique Leblanc, and Fredericton North MLA Stephen Horsman. Another nomination meeting is scheduled for Fredericton West-Hanwell, the riding of education minister Dominic Cardy, on July 26.
But just how much would be decided by a general election isn’t clear. Both of the two major parties have had very clear areas of strength, particularly in recent elections, meaning a large breakthrough by either is relatively unlikely.
For example the Liberals won the popular vote in 2018 by 6 per cent, propelled by wins with massive margins in the north, but still finished one behind the Tories in the seat count.
“I think that’s the challenge of making the case that you want an election for a very clear mandate, because we know that based on the regional voting patterns of the province that for both the two major parties it’s very difficult to breakthrough in the areas they aren’t strong in,” Lewis said.
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