The race is tightening, somewhat, since our prediction at the start of the campaign. Angus Reid now pegs the gap between the NDP and the B.C. Liberals to be at 7 points, but Ipsos Reid’s most recent poll suggests the gap is wider, at 10 points (NDP 45, BC Libs 35).
If the gap is indeed as large as seven to 10 points, all signs point to a large NDP majority. However, if the race continues to tighten in the run to May 14th, we may have a traditionally close B.C. election, with perhaps the NDP in the upper slot normally occupied by the B.C. Liberals.
So here is our latest update on our best bets on how the riding races are shaping up.
STRONG BC LIBERAL RIDINGS: 8
Vancouver-Quilchena: Historically one of the safest BC Liberal seats, Andrew Wilkinson is carrying the banner for them, and is likely to replace longtime Liberal MLA Colin Hansen, who got 70% of the vote last election.
Peace River South: Dawson Creek Mayor Mike Bernier is running for the Liberals, but both the NDP and Conservatives think the riding is in play.
Surrey-Cloverdale: This was Kevin Falcon’s riding for more than a decade, but Stephanie Cadieux has moved into this one from Surrey-Panorama
Surrey-White Rock: Longtime incumbent Gordon Hogg is a safe bet to win again.
Fort Langley-Aldergrove: Rich Coleman is expected to retain this seat for the B.C. Liberals
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LEAN BC LIBERAL RIDINGS: 20
Richmond East: This seat is held by the longest-serving MLA in BC, Linda Reid of the Liberals.
Vancouver-Langara: Incumbent Moira Stillwell holds this seat for the Liberals, considered the party’s second-strongest seat in Vancouver. The NDP is making a strong push here, and Stilwell may be hurt by the fact a B.C. Conservative candidate is running here.
Abbotsford-Mission: City councillor Simon Gibson is the only Liberal candidate in Abbotsford not facing tough competition.
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: Incumbnent Doug Horne is thought to have a good chance of holding on.
Vancouver-False Creek: One of the more interesting races, pitting former Vancouver mayor Sam Sullivan against gaming industry executive Matt Toner.
Abbotsford-West: Independent Moe Gill may make life difficult for Mike de Jong (whom he blames for costing him the nomination in Abbotsford-South), as Indo-Canadian politics may be a factor.
Nechako Lakes: The BC Conservatives are hopeful they can win this seat, as one of the factors may be the Nechako’s relatively low voting population—5,000 votes can win the riding.
Langley: Normally safe Liberal seat but BC Conservative leader John Cummins is running there to make things interesting. The NDP got 36 per cent here in a 2009, and a respectable showing by Cummins may allow them to steal the seat.
Kelowna-Mission: The NDP just lost its candidate to scandal, which may derail its chances of stealing this from the Liberals.
Kamloops –South Thompson: The strongest of the two B.C. Liberal-held Kamloops ridings..
Westside-Kelowna: A traditional area of strenght for the “free enterprise coalition” dating back to the Social Credit days.
Kelowna-Lake Country: See above.
Kootenay East: The irascible Bill Bennett is running as a “independent affiliate”, and hopes his personal brand will work best for him.
Parksville-Qualicum: Another riding that the BC Conservatives have their eye on, they’re running David Coupland, a well known radiologist, while the Liberals are countering with a star Paralympian in Michelle Stilwell. The NDP is hoping to come up the middle.
Surrey-Panorama: An interesting race that pits longtime city councillor Marvin Hunt against Blacktop & Checker Cabs President Amrik Mahil.
Prince George-MacKenzie: Longtime MLA Pat Bell is not running, which may put this seat in play.
Prince George-Valemount: A long-time seat held by Shirley Bond. Either a big takedown by the NDP, or a Liberal stalwart hanging on.
TOSSUPS: 9
Cariboo-Chilcotin: The BC Liberals won this by 88 votes last time, and current polling suggests this will go back to the NDP.
Surrey-Tynehead: The least strong Liberal seat in Surrey and incumbent Dave Hayer is out. A win here by the NDP would give them a majority of Surrey seats.
Saanich North & the Islands: There is no incumbent and this is wide open. The NDP almost won last time, but this time the Greens have a popular local councillor, Adam Olsen, as their candidate. A riding similar to Oak Bay-Gordon Head.
Abbotsford South: A normally safe Liberal seat is in play because John van Dongen quit the party and is running as a popular independent. The NDP could squeak through with just 35%.
Chilliwack-Hope: The one NDP seat that currently has a chance of reverting back to the BC Liberals.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head: The Green party stands their best chance here, as they are running climate change scientist Andrew Weaver as candidate. Should be a three-way race.
Penticton: Bill Barisoff has retired from the BC Liberals, and the NDP are hopeful they can win as in 1991 when the free enterprise party (Social Credit) fell apart. Important to note the Green party, whose candidate received 16% of the vote in 2009, is not fielding a candidate this time around. This should benefit the NDP.
Boundary-Similkameen: The BC Liberals have some unity problems, as incumbent John Slater quit after saying he was forced out. The riding exec quit. The NDP has its own problems, as its original candidate quit on the eve of the election.
LEAN NDP RIDINGS: 13
North Vancouver-Lonsdale: NDP have held this seat in the past and are hoping councillor Craig Keating can steal this from incumbent Naomi Yamamoto
Vancouver-Fairview: NDP is running high-profile George Heyman against incumbent Margaret MacDiarmid. A swing seat that should go to the party that wins the election.
Shuswap: Long-term B.C. Liberal MLA George Abbott has retired, and the NDP thinks that gives them a major boost here.
Comox Valley: Don McRae won by a relatively small margin, and the NDP have won here before.
Vernon-Monashee: BC Liberal incumbent Eric Foster won with just 37% of the vote, as the Greens took 16% and the Conservatives took 8%. Adrian Dix has visited this riding many times in the past year, and the NDP thinks this is theirs.
Vancouver-Point Grey: The premier’s riding against David Eby for the rematch. If the NDP wins the election, she’ll likely be defeated. If the Liberals win, she may win.
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows: Traditionally a very close race, but NDP candidate Elizabeth Rosenau should have the edge.
STRONG NDP RIDINGS: 33
LEAN INDEPENDENT: 2
Delta South: Incumbent Vicki Huntington has a good shot to be relected, although BC Liberals are making this a priority.
Peace River North: Independent Arthur Hadland got 30% last time, and he’s running again. Incumbent Pat Pimm isn’t the strongest incumbent. The NDP is unlikely to win, but Hadland might.
Seats where the Conservatives may be in contention: Langley, Peace River South, Nechako Lakes, Parksville-Qualicum
Seats where the Greens may be in contention: Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Saanich North & the Islands
Seats where Independents are in contention: Cariboo North (Bob Simpson), Abbotsford South (John van Dongen), Peace River North (Arthur Hadland), Abbotsford West (Moe Gill)
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