Liberals rise in polls as Canadians rally behind Trudeau in spat with Trump: Ipsos poll

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Friday that Ottawa will index the Canada Child Benefit to inflation two years earlier than expected – Jul 20, 2018

As the weather gets warmer, Canadians are also warming back up to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals — with their approval rating jumping by five points this month.

According to an exclusive Ipsos poll for Global News, 55 per cent of Canadian respondents approve of Justin Trudeau’s government, up from 50 per cent in June.

READ MORE: Canadians split right down the middle on Trans Mountain purchase: Ipsos poll

It’s also a marked rise since its lowest point; only 44 per cent of respondents approved of him at the end of March.

If a vote were held today, the Liberals would receive 39 per cent of the popular vote, the poll found — up six points since last month — with the Tories coming in second with 32 per cent of the vote, a drop of five points since last month.

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The NDP remains unchanged with 21 per cent of the vote, the bloc Quebecois is down one point to two per cent of the vote, and all others, including the Green Party, would receive six per cent of the vote — up one point.

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Pollster Mike Colledge, president of Ipsos Canada public affairs, explained the uptick in approval has to do with the timing — Canadians are rallying around Trudeau after public disagreements with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“The summer months are working very well for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals,” Colledge told Global News, “in part because of the response to the war of words for trade tariffs spat with Mr. Trump that rallied both the Liberal base as well as those who opposed the Liberals.”

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Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, and Trudeau responded by slapping retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth $16 billion.

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Colledge said it’s one of those rare issues where we’ve seen even Doug Ford line up behind Mr. Trudeau and say this is the right approach.

Another key factor is the lack of media attention on Trudeau’s opponents.

“During summer, the House of Commons breaks and it takes away some of the oxygen from the opposition parties in terms of their ability to get media attention around key issues,” he explained.

The shift is mirrored in key demographic groups including women, men, Millennials, Gen Xers, and in every income category.

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Support for Conservatives remains strong among those 55 years of age and older.

READ MORE: Trump trade war highlights need for fewer barriers between provinces: Trudeau

Across the country, the Liberals lead in ever province except the Prairies. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta all favour the Conservatives.

Support for the Liberals isn’t as high as it was directly after the 2015 election, but Colledge said, “it’s like they either righted the ship or they’re taking advantage of the current summertime agenda.”

“It’s probably a little bit of both,” he explained.

Colledge also clarified that the poll was done before Trudeau announced his cabinet shakeup on Wednesday.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 13 and 16, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 people was interviewed. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled.


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