Heading into the last day of the regular season, only three playoff match-ups have been decided, and even one of those still has question marks as London and Owen Sound still have to figure out who has home ice in their matchup. Niagara and Oshawa are guaranteed to meet in the Eastern Conference and the Ice Dogs will have home ice. Kingston will play North Bay. Beyond that, four Sunday afternoon games will answer all of the other questions.
Ties in the standings that do not involve possible elimination are broken first by total number of wins, then by head-to-head records between the teams and then, if needed, by goal differential.
Here are the playoff scenarios for each team:
Western Conference
Sault Ste. Marie – Will finish first overall and will have home ice advantage in every series they play.
Kitchener – Will finish first in the Midwest Division and will own the second seed through the playoffs.
Sarnia – Will finish with the second-best record overall and own the third seed through the playoffs.
London – Will finish fourth or fifth and will play the Attack in the first round. Can finish fourth with a win over the Greyhounds in Sault Ste. Marie.
Owen Sound – Will finish fourth or fifth and will play London in the first round. Will finish fourth with any kind of win by the Greyhounds in their game against London.
Guelph – Will finish sixth or seventh. After beating Kitchener on Friday, Guelph had a chance to clinch sixth place, but lost in Erie on Saturday night. They will be paying close attention to the Saginaw-Windsor game on Sunday. If Saginaw beats the Spitfires in regulation, Guelph secures the sixth seed. If Windsor earns any kind of point, they will pass the Storm by way of more victories, but Guelph would still finish ahead of Saginaw based on head-to-head results.
Windsor – Will finish sixth or eighth. If the Spitfires beat Saginaw, they will finish sixth. If they lose to Saginaw, they will be eighth.
Saginaw – Will finish seventh or eighth. A win over Windsor in regulation allows the Spirit to avoid Sault Ste. Marie in round one. An overtime or shootout win or a loss to the Spitfires and Saginaw finishes in eighth place.
Eastern Conference
Hamilton – Will finish first and have home ice advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Barrie – Will finish second and complete a turnaround from worst record in the OHL last year to as high as fifth overall this year.
Kingston – Will finish third.
Niagara – Will finish fourth and play Oshawa in the first round. The teams met twice in the regular season. The Generals won on the road in overtime. The Ice Dogs won on the road in a shootout.
Oshawa – Will finish fifth and play Niagara in round one.
North Bay – Will finish sixth or seventh. If the Battalion win in Ottawa on Sunday, they clinch sixth place. The 67’s can no longer catch them.
Mississauga – Can finish seventh or eighth. After a loss to Niagara on Saturday afternoon, the Steelheads’ situation is a lot clearer. They are tied with the Ottawa 67’s in points. Each team has one game to play and Mississauga owns the tiebreaker based on wins. Ottawa is home to North Bay on Sunday while the Steelheads host Kingston.
Ottawa – Will finish seventh or eighth. Need to be one point better than the Steelheads over this weekend’s games. Ottawa has one remaining at home to North Bay. Mississauga is at Niagara Saturday and at home to Kingston Sunday. The Frontenacs have nothing to play for and lots of veterans who could get some rest. That could work against the 67’s.
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