Do any candidates in the BC Liberal party leadership race stand out?

The one feature of the B.C. Liberal party leadership race that stands out the most is that no one stands out.

There are more than a half dozen candidates, but there is no obvious front-runner and no clear advantage held by any of them. Most are relatively unknown (even those who had been cabinet ministers in government had a low profile) or are folks whose name recognition is confined to geographical regions.

It appeared there would be about eight candidates for at least the first part of the race (to continue past Dec. 29, each candidate has to give the party $50,000, which should cull the field somewhat).

On paper, at least, the crowded field does not seem as strong as it was in 2011 when the B.C. Liberals last went through this exercise and elected Christy Clark. Back then, the race featured three veteran and high profile cabinet ministers, and a well-known radio show host (Christy Clark, who happened to win partly on the strength of her long ties to the party).

Here, then, is an attempt at handicapping each candidate (posted in no particular order):

Mike Bernier

The former education minister from the Peace River area, Bernier’s challenge will be establishing himself in the nearly 50 ridings within Metro Vancouver (each riding is assigned 100 “points”, which are distributed among the candidates based on how many votes they get from members in the riding).

Likeable and moderate, he could benefit from the preferred ballot system that will be used, as he may be many voters’ second or third choice.

Andrew Wilkinson

A former cabinet minister, Wilkinson must overcome being cast as a member of the elite, as he represents the wealthy Vancouver-Quilchena riding on the city’s west side. But he appears to be well-organized (he’ll have significant caucus support, including the backing of former MLA Bill Bennett, which is a bit of a coup) and seems to have started that organizing earlier than any of his rivals.

Wilkinson must also shed the image he honed while in government – coming across as arrogant and all-knowing (he’s both a doctor and a lawyer). But he’s also articulate and intends to make education his number one issue.

Dianne Watts

A former Surrey mayor and Conservative MP, there’s no question Watts brings some profile and experience to her candidacy bid.

But she’ll get a rough ride by some for her lack of history in the party (some will go as far as accusing her disloyalty) and her lack of party experience may hurt her chances of being named a second or third choice by many voters when it comes to that preferential ballot. It’s also not clear if she has much of a profile outside her long-time political base of Surrey.

Mike de Jong

The best known of the field (he’s been an MLA for more than 20 years), de Jong brings experience but also baggage (some will no doubt lay the election loss directly at his feet, as he opted to put a massive $2.7 billion budget surplus to debt retirement rather than use it to address some of the “affordability” issues facing voters).  As well, any party member wanting “renewal” is unlikely to vote for him. But some voters may view him as a safer option than his less experienced rivals.

Sam Sullivan

The former Vancouver mayor’s chief reason for entering the race is to raise some provocative issues, such as legalized drugs, more private health care, charter schools and selling government liquor stores. He’s been a bit of a loner within the party, and I’m not sure he’ll be there at the end.

Todd Stone

The ex-transportation minister has youth and a reputation for thorough organizing on his side. Needs work on his communication skills, and needs to widen his appeal beyond his Kamloops regional base. But he has some caucus support, including some MLAs in Metro Vancouver, and he has put together an impressive backroom team.

Michael Lee

A first-time MLA, the former corporate lawyer is well organized behind the scenes and may capture a lot of the conservative vote (he’s a former aide to former Tory cabinet minister Kim Campbell). His lack of name recognition is a big handicap, but he’s got some key party veterans in his camp. His campaign launch event was impressive.

Lucy Sager

A complete political unknown outside of her home town of Terrace, she is a business development consultant who faces a very steep climb to compete with her more established and organized rivals.

The first leadership debate is set for Oct. 15 and the actual vote is in early February. Let the race begin!

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. This is reprinted from his weekly column in Glacier Media.