CLEVELAND — It’s so hard to know what to make of anecdotal evidence. I went in search today for Donald Trump supporters in downtown Cleveland, close to the Republican Convention site.
I wanted to know how they felt about Trump’s style of trashing his opponents, specifically Hillary Clinton. “Hillary’s a liar!” and “Crooked Hillary!” are a couple of Trump’s favourite phrases.
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I found plenty of Trump backers and no shortage of them are delighted with the attacks. One said she welcomed his bare knuckles approach and that America needs a “True American Badass.” If you put that on a hat, I bet it would sell faster than the “Make America Great Again” hats that are going like hot cakes around Quicken Loans Arena.
But I was also struck by how many folks — including Republicans — who do not like his abrasive style. When I asked one man how he felt, he began, “Well, I’m a Republican,” then went on to say, “It makes my skin crawl when you have attack politics like that, I must admit.”
That last thought, an admission, was interesting. It’s like he is out-of-step admitting he’s turned off by incivility.
One other thing he told me was that he’s from Ohio. Others who told me they were also put off by Trump were also from Ohio.
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Ohio is one of only a handful of competitive states in November’s election, states that are largely diverse and moderate. But, Ohio may be the most interesting.
Kyle Kondik, the author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks The President, told me this week Ohio is the microcosm of the United States.
It’s a blend of urban, suburban and rural voters with no dominant political culture.
“It’s a state that is special because it’s not special, because it’s a reflection of the nation and has been for a very long time,” Kondik said.
Republicans have never won the presidency without winning Ohio.
So, after losing Ohio — and the elections — in both 2008 and 2012, the GOP booked the Buckeye state for their 2016 convention.
The over-simplified logic is this: if Republicans bring their message, not to mention commerce and national attention to Ohio, then Republicans might win Ohio.
And if they can win here, that could indeed be the bellwether that they will win enough swing voters nationwide to win the election.
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What Republicans hadn’t counted on when they locked in their convention in this moderate state, was that the nominee would be the party’s most immoderate presidential candidate in recent history.
A few anecdotal responses to questions about Trump don’t begin to break down the vote in Ohio.
It might seem like moderate voters will tilt towards the Democrats, but consider this: the Republican whose skin crawls from Trump-style attacks said he expects Trump “will start modifying (his style).”
“I think you’re going to see a change.” Trump can make his skin crawl, but he might still get his vote.
My sense is Ohio remains in play because moderates remain in play. Come election night I’ll be watching this state’s results closely to see if the Republicans’ gamble to come to Ohio in July pays off in November.
Eric Sorensen is Global National’s Senior National Affairs Correspondent and former Washington Bureau Chief.
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