It was the “winter that wasn’t” across much of Canada with below-normal snowfall and well above-normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, spring sprung early in western Canada with early 30-degree heat and a bone-dry ground. This helped to fuel forest fires across British Columbia and Alberta that included the Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest in Canadian history.
READ MORE: Thousands of residents return home after Fort McMurray wildfire
In the east, April and early May included late-season snow and frost. But the tide has since turned.
On a larger scale, our planet just had its eighth straight month of “warmest in recorded history.”
So what’s going on with this wacky weather? Much of what we’ve seen can be blamed on the super El Niño of this past winter. That record warm water in the Pacific has cooled dramatically and computer models are predicting El Niño’s sister, La Niña could emerge by the summer.
READ MORE: Edmonton sees 5th warmest March on record but El Niño weakening
These rapid changes affect the jet stream around the world and could lead to more significant heat waves, droughts, fires and even floods. We’re also expecting a more active hurricane season as the hostile winds that have weakened tropical systems lately slowly ease in the Atlantic.
Using computer models, climatology and analogs (years with a similar pattern setup), this summer is expected to be warmer and sunnier than normal across most of Canada. Let’s take a look at what to expect from region to region.
British Columbia and Alberta
After an active start to the forest fire season, heavy rainfall and cooler temperatures would be welcome news for the summer ahead. The good news is that precipitation should be close to normal, but with warmer-than-normal water remaining off the west coast, ridging will prevail over the next few months. This means another hotter-than-normal summer, but without the prolonged extreme heat of the past two years.
READ MORE – Expert warns Alberta weather will intensify; Notley focuses on climate plan
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Temperatures are expected to be average to above-normal here, too, but with less-than-normal rainfall, especially across southern Saskatchewan. Drought conditions may develop, which would lead to more fires and potentially affect farmers’ crops later in July and August.
WATCH: Meteorologist Jay Anderson tells Global’s Heather Steele about the hot, dry weather expected ahead in Manitoba
Ontario and Quebec
The southern half of both these provinces will enjoy the benefits of frequent high-pressure systems, meaning lots of sunshine, but also near- to below-normal rainfall. The ground is already dry, and the Great Lakes are warmer than the past two springs, which also favours above-seasonal temperatures. We are also predicting a higher number of 30 C days, but extended heat waves are not likely. The pattern could turn stormy in July, and another very warm September is also likely.
Atlantic Canada
With warm water lurking just off the coast, temperatures here are also forecast to be above normal. After a seasonal June, the warmth and humidity will intensify later in the summer. In late August and September, focus will shift to the Atlantic hurricane season. After a couple of quiet years, conditions will become more favourable for storm development thanks to the building La Niña. The hurricane threat would likely continue well into the fall.
Whether it’s tracking severe weather warnings or finding the best day for a picnic this summer, the Skytracker weather app is a great place to start.
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