Donald Trump ‘almost certain’ to be the next president: professor

By rjoseph1 Global News

Posted February 27, 2016 2:53 pm

Updated February 27, 2016 2:57 pm

1 min read

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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, accompanied by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, speaks before a rally in Fort Worth, Texas, Friday, Feb. 26, 2016. AP Photo/LM Otero

If nominated, Donald Trump is almost guaranteed to win the presidency, according to a political science professor in Stony Brook, New York.

Helmut Norpoth said he created a statistical model that works for every election since 1912, except one (the 1960 election).

He said the model shows that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, there’s a 97-99 per cent chance he’d become president.

“The bottom line is that … [it’s] almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth told Stony Brook University’s student paper, The Statesman, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

Tweet This Click to share quote on Twitter: "The bottom line is that … [it's] almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president," Norpoth told <a href="https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/">Stony Brook University's student paper</a>, The Statesman, "if he's a nominee of the [Republican] party."

The model uses patterns in the electoral cycle and a candidate’s performance in the primaries to determine who has the popular vote in the presidential election. But it doesn’t predict who will win the primaries.

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Norpoth says the odds are slightly worse for the real estate mogul if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination: he’d beat her with 54.7 per cent of the popular vote, with 97 per cent accuracy.