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Toronto Blue Jays have 88.52% chance of making the playoffs: stats professor

WATCH ABOVE: A University of Toronto statistician gives the Jays an 88.52 per cent chance of winning their division. Peter Kim reports.

TORONTO — Statistically speaking, it’s looking good for the Toronto Blue Jays.

According to the University of Toronto’s Jeffrey Rosenthal’s calculations, Canada’s only Major League Baseball team has a 88.52 per cent of making the playoffs.

The department of statistics professor looked at several factors such as remaining schedules, current records of the respective teams and the lead the Jays enjoy over the New York Yankees as of early Tuesday to arrive at his figure.

“Of course there are a lot of variables that go into who’s going to win or lose a game,” said Rosenthal. “But from the point of view of statistics we can just get an estimate of the chance of them winning or losing each game, and then see how those are going to go together and how that’s going to combine with their previous record.”

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Fans outside Rogers Centre were confident in the team’s chances at winning their division.

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“The pitching, the hitting, it’s all coming together this year,” said Mark, a fan who was eagerly hanging out outside Rogers Centre Tuesday afternoon.

The Toronto Blue Jays take on their division rivals, the New York Yankees Tuesday and Wednesday night, and enjoy a 3.5 game lead over the American team. Rosenthal gives the Jays a 51.02 per cent chance of beating them Tuesday night.

Fans say the energy in the city is reminiscent of 1992 and 1993 when the Jays won back-to-back World Series titles. When it comes to their odds at going all the way this year, the team’s chances don’t look as good.

Out of the eight teams who will make the playoffs, Rosenthal gives each an equal shot.

“That’s a tougher one because at that point they are going to be one of eight teams that are left in the playoffs,” said Rosenthal. “And really it’s hard to say because all those teams are going to have really good records; so it’s really not different, in my opinion, than about one chance in eight – which would of course be 12.5 per cent.”