TORONTO — The majority of Canadians would vote Democrat in next year’s U.S. presidential election, but for those who would vote Republican, Donald Trump would be their man.
A poll released Friday, conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News, found that 55 per cent of Canadians surveyed would vote for a Democrat.
Among respondents who said they’d vote Republican, 69 per cent said they didn’t know who they’d vote for. But of those who made the choice, 38 per cent chose Trump. Jeb Bush placed a distant second with 22 per cent, and Chris Christie placed third at eight per cent.
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“This is not surprising. What I’ve seen, you know, 69 per cent or 7 in 10 not knowing who to vote for in the Republican race is not a surprise,” said John Wright, Ipsos senior VP of public affairs.
Wright said when it comes to Canadians watching the race, Trump’s decades as a public figure, along with his outrageous antics, are dominating people’s attention.
“It is name recognition. Trump already has a brand, you know, ‘you’re fired,’ everybody already knew him from that.”
However, it’s likely there is more to Trump’s lead than just his name.
“The fact that of three in 10, that they choose Mr. Trump over Mr. Bush is also not a surprise. We had that many choose Rob Ford in Toronto,” said Wright. “So there’s a constituency out there who wants to follow that kind of a leader.”
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Meanwhile Jeb Bush has name recognition going for him, but little else as far as general public awareness.
“I don’t think people will know Jeb Bush, but they’ll know the Bush name,” said Wright. “Everybody else is just a placeholder.”
The high number of respondents who said they’d vote for a Democrat also wasn’t a shocker for Wright.
“Of the years I’ve been following the polling of Canadians’ views of Americans, we tend to be the more Democrat-supporting nation,” said Wright. “Our sentiment is to welcome more so the Democrat than the Republican and I think right now the credibility of Mr. Trump is certainly strained.”
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So while Trump appears to be riding high among Canadians with a Republican lean, it might not be due to Canadian’s agreeing with Trump’s values and beliefs.
“Canadians are watching more in amusement and amazement rather than attachment.”
The survey’s findings largely mirror recent polls in the United States, where Trump holds a commanding lead ahead of Bush, with all other Republican candidates barely making a blip.
“It’s very reflective of actual voting in the United States,” said Wright. As for all the other Candidates? “Right now, 7 in 10 people are kind of waiting for the big contest, not the little one to finish.”
Exclusive Global News Ipsos polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Global News Ipsos.” This poll was conducted between August 24 and August 26, with a sample of 1,000 Canadians from Ipsos’ online panel and is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
With files from James Armstrong
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